Uptrend is back, what is the target?

Oct 13th was "Reversal Day", as I posted on my blog.  The best time to get in long was Friday EOD (or exact bottom Thursday!).

So what now, all clear?  I expect the market to float higher, with the bear market resuming in earnest in 2023.   I expect between Feb and May the market to start to break down, with an epic plunge between June and September.  Think Circa 2008, a market trying to fight to survive and finally throwing in the towel.

Between now and then, everyone, including me, will say the worst is behind us.  But what we started in 2019 under Trump, releasing 2 trillion in free money, will continue to ripple through the world economy.   First deflation (before 2T given away) then inflation, and now the FED is tightening rates and will trigger an earnings collapse.

The up trend should hit ~440 range as a high.  A close above 502 violates everything I am writing.
Please remember, The FED is announcing a MATERIAL change to its operations around June 2023, a private blockchain called Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).  This is the first step to overhaul all money in the world based on Dollars to centralize control to the FED.  NEW tech takes time to be effective, it isn't flipping a switch, so I think the market will follow the pattern I outlined.

I added a purple line that I expect the market may return to, but not pierce on a closing basis.  Even if the market does pierce, it doesn't violate the thesis.   What will indicate a market decline is breaking the lower dashed horizontal green line.  Once that happens, US equity indexes is the last place your saving should be in.  The Market will decline to the up sloping green line, then  bounce again, then on a turn around could go down a full 80% on SPY from the top made in Dec 2021.  I'll do another post on what my plan is for safety.

Reversal day

Quick post, we opened lower from previous reversal, but closed much much higher, this was THE reversal that I was expecting, it was a long bottoming process.   It could be a reversal that lasts for a year before hitting our much lower destination.   If you like going long, buying Friday SPY, with a stop of yesterday’s low of 349 as a stop loss.  Good luck!

Mondays Decision, no Market breakdown!

 Friday ended below the line I called out as the 20% lower line, but not by much.

Monday was decision day, and the market is now back into bear rally mode.  However, until the January high is broken, we are in a BEAR market!  So I do expect much, much lower market, but it could be out to fall of 2023 now.

I added a purple line now, and if the SPY closes BELOW 357 on a CLOSING basis, its is finally, game over and a material run lower will happen.  Until then, playing the bull is fine, and I may on occasion go long items.  This rally is a gift to exit long positions, pick your level between 385 to  400ish range.

If you are very optimistic, then a break above the red downtrend line is the first step to BREAK this bear market.  Until that happens, its pure hope, no chart or price support for that point of view.  I'll put some short on if/when we get near 400 for the next material down swing.  Good luck!