Friday was brutal, I expect a generational paradigm shift has arrived in our global economics. The world Baby boomer generation is now more retired than not, and we are seeing shrinking populations for the rest of our lifetimes. (excluding India and a few other countries).
China has a material demographic issue both with aging population and retreating population totals. China officially expects to hit 800 Million people in 2082 from current 1.4 billion. Unofficial numbers advance this materially to as soon as 2050.
With the world population peaking sometime in the next 40 years after major population growth the past 100 years, our economic system isn't built for it. This will result in global currency wars (already in progress) and a world searching for something to invest for growth.
Right now the market topped, and I am now selling all my long assets tomorrow, with a few exceptions. Goldman Sachs agrees as it sells over 140 billion in the month ahead. If/when the SPY closes weekly ABOVE 410 in the 'next few months', I'll reverse my opinion. I expect since everyone is invested in index funds, and automatic trading may kick in to conserve assets.
I'll also become a buyer if/when the market makes a substantial low, to play the long side for a time. I expect an intermediate low around the elections.
Over the year ahead I do expect a real low to be 50% lower than here, if not 80%. But nothing runs in a straight line!
This is what I have been obsessing over since August 2006, the fourth turning that is upon us. I don't have any easy investments answers except 'risk off' is the motto.
Good luck.
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