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Friday, July 24, 2020

The root cause for market crazy

I am starting to think the market froth is due to millennial entering into the markets.  I have heard stories that Robin-hood app is disrupting the market, but then I ran across an article that really brought the market distortion into focus.

For the first time - ever - there is more option trading than the underlying stock trading.  That means high risk, high leverage is driving the market direction rather than actual stock purchasing as a primary driver.

That to me means that if at anytime there is market exhaustion, the shift maybe dramatic.  Further these market traders don't have the experience to know that the market makers will on an options expiration on a Friday let the market close, and co-incidentally explosive news hits with markets opening materially lower on Monday.  This enables the option expiration to settle in the market maker's favor.  I have seem dramatic gaps like this back in January 2008, and in the recent market descent in 2020.

My concern is with a market gap down, the many small traders will trigger a panic trade.

To read more on this odd event of option trading exceeding stocks, click here.

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