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Sunday, June 28, 2020

Waiting for the other shoe to drop

I don't think I am alone in thinking we are nearing a generational crisis at the government financial level in the year ahead.  In case you don't have this thinking, let me run through some math, I am having a hard time being positive.

First, the crux of the issue is we live in a financial system that is debt based.  What I mean is, since WW2, america has owed money.  Each dollar created is created with new debt, and old debt is rolled over.  That means that we are on a trajectory that money borrowed in 1944 will NEVER be repaid.

So the rest of this rant is based on this ecosystem of debt.  We may be able to switch out of debt based to non-debt based money creation.   But historically that has lead to currency collapse.  My hope is we can stop creating bonds and just print money with no downside.  If your skeptical, like me, then lets look at the debt based problem.


First we have interest rates that have continually gone down since Volcker rose rates sky high about 1981.  The result is debt can be rolled over easier as the new rate is always better than the old rate.  If this ever shifted higher, our rolling over of debt for almost 40 years will come to an end.  That's quite a bit of debt 'tail' we will have to deal with.


Lets run the numbers:
Federal Reserve bank 'assets' : 7 trillion running quickly to 9 trillion.  (keep in mind before 2008, it was ALWAYS under 1 trillion).
US public pensions underfunded: 5 trillion.
Corporate debt: 10 trillion
Personal Debt: 14 trillion

With debt rising quickly, lets round  to 65 trillion and rising.

The US stock market is worth 38 trillion, and lets say we have a 40% market correction (70% would be historically normal based on valuations), this would bring the market to  22 trillion.

The question is, with a stock market at 22 trillion, and GDP shrinking 8% down to about 20 trillion, and US total debt could easily hit 70 trillion in the year ahead, will it matter?

But to put into perspective, the  US derivative market is totaling 650+ trillion, so perhaps GDP, market value, and all other debts are just small potatoes.

I can't help but think this entire system is dry kindling, set a a flame by one of many choices.
Democracy turned dictatorship- Trump losing the election and refusing to leave office?  
Or just lose election AND leave office?



I really don't know where is best place to put money, except pay down debts, and maybe buy some gold and/or bitcoin as a hedge. Good luck!





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