Today unemployment numbers was released. The headline shows 'steady as it goes', about same as past, 200K positive job growth. But like most things, the details is in the 'fake news'. The unemployment shows over 2 million people dropped out of the labor force for this report. The assertion is 2 million people retired or gave up looking for work since the last unemployment report. Considering currently we have only 58% of the population 'employable', we lost 1.5% of the work force this period. The recorded job loss was 1.46 million jobs. When you have 2 million drop out of the work force, we have a NET positive job growth.
If you believe above is fake news please stop reading. If there is pause for concern, read on.
Being generous and using seasonally adjusted numbers this is the WORST report since January of 1999 , with 423,000 jobs lost.
Combine this with the trade wars starting, and the indicators I follow show a potential market trend change below.
I am putting on the caution warning for the markets, with unconfirmed price action for this being the next new recession starting.
I cut my investments by 40% today.
What makes me very concerned is interest rates are still VERY low, and with corporate tax cuts corporations pulled their cash from over-seas in record amounts with executives dumping shares. If there is a downturn in the market, I have a hard time seeing what is the easy stimulus plan.
What makes me very concerned is interest rates are still VERY low, and with corporate tax cuts corporations pulled their cash from over-seas in record amounts with executives dumping shares. If there is a downturn in the market, I have a hard time seeing what is the easy stimulus plan.
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