Market Direction Change

I been emailing friends on the market since Feb 2nd, the upshot is we likely formed a top for the next 3 months, and very possibly a year out.  Unfortunately the year out part isn't clear yet.

I subscribe to two services, https://chartfreak.com/, which focuses on individual stocks and https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/ , which covers macro trends of the market.

the screenshots below are from them, its a paid service, so I don't share the information except when I see extreme moments in time like we may be in now.

The ultimate confirmation will be when this indicator flips
http://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/2015/10/long-term-investment-trading-signal.html
Food for thought on Market fall predictions using Fed Funds Rate
https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/chart-predicts-every-market-crash-in-history-ZQD5lS5qnEa6x0Yf0_UGWw


So lets recap!

Feb 2nd

Friends,

I subscribe to a market analyst that generated indicators of a down market for next 14 days, 30 days, and potentially for months.

Please see below the summary.

Unfortunately for me, I didn't check this earlier, I would have exited on 31st.

I'll keep SOME shares of most positions as a "reminder" of my exit position, and to watch in event this trend changes to re-establish.

Also for some precious metal miners I may keep a higher percent.

So while I am not panicking, I am taking serious this new sell signal after a parabolic run up.

Feb 11th

Friends,

The same indicators indicating Jan 30th time to exit the market, is now showing a counter-rally starting Monday.

Their prediction is we fail around the previous high (just short, or somewhat higher), then resume downtrend.

So if you wanted in, or didnt get out, we had a healthy sell off that may provide some cover for getting into or out of the market.

Unless I email otherwise, assume sentiment is ultimate failure for a confirmed  bear market to begin.  Could be a couple of weeks or later this year before the down trend breaks below here.

As for me, I will keep it short-term trading, no big position long-term holds.

Good Luck!

March 1st

Market is looking weak, the counter-rally from the initial drop may be over.

One more signal to trip to confirm reversal to next leg lower

March 2nd

Confirmation today.

I won't bother updating anyone again until I see the Purchasing Power/30 day/14 day/ and 1-3 month turn green.

My main concern was the parabolic swing up we would see would burst, and it did late January.

The counter-rally was a great time to get out or take a chance of this thing turning around.

At this point, unless I see all green, I am assuming we saw a 1+ year top.

Good luck!