May the Games begin! Who will be the Gold Metal winner?

On Friday close, Jan 16th, 2015, Friday,  Long dated options for GDX and GDXJ, and many other stocks will expire.
I expect this week to be the week of games, as large bets over years come due this Friday.

Miners could do anything.  If they explode higher, I'd be tempted to dump some positions on Friday.
Gold has been holding its own for months, and miners are above their low.  GDX was down to 17 now trading around 20.

So the week ahead will be interesting across the market.

Will there be a Gold Metal winner?  I am hoping so!  good luck!

Gold Miners - Missing the boat?

Yesterday I posted "Gold Miners, Break Out?" indicating we may be on the verge of a break out.  Today there was a nice follow through.  GDX could turn back down lower, but with this channel break I think it is safe to put stops now in at 18.

GDX has been on such a slide for years, this maybe on the beginning on a multi-year run.
We haven't had a weekly moving average cross yet to confirm a multi-year run, but in the short term a nice trend change.  (see this post for long term indicator)

I also wouldn't be surprised in a whip-saw action into the yearly options expiration in mid-January, it simply becomes where the big money wants it to go.

To the chart!

Also Oil has taken a huge hit, which will help gold miners profits.  Whenever Oil bottoms, huge buying opportunity, anyones guess how low it will go.  There is severe international games going on with Oil, and Russia is taking the worst hit!

Russia 2 year federal bond is paying about 16%!!!! compare that to USA 2 year bond at 0.66%!!!
Oil price collapsed with Ruble devalued and Russia rates soaring is not a good time for Russia.

Gold Miners, Break out?

Gold Miners have had a nice run the last couple of weeks.
Of course, I am happy to see finally some gains, however I want to temper this optimism with a larger context.

I do believe gold miners can do well WITHOUT gold appreciating, simply due to cheaper energy.  A flat gold price with cheaper costs will improve stock price.

However, after watching gold miner beat down for last few years, best to wait for indicator of a trend change.

Taking a step back, Gold Miners (GDX) is on the cusp of breaking out of a range.  If it does, it maybe an explosive move.   Buying here at 19.44 you can use as a stop out price of 17.44, risking about 10% for upside gains of potentially much more.  I rise back to price of  $60 3 years ago would be 200% gains.
It is also important to know that USD has risen insanely rapidly since October, and Gold has held its price.  If USD reverses will be interesting to see if Gold rises.

To the charts! Use your own judgement.