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Friday, January 24, 2014

The Great Unwinding is starting in 2014

In Sept 2008-March 2009 the world decided to double down on all problems and have the world banks and governments go all in to prevent an epic economic collapse.  For now, I'll steer clear of political debate if this should have occurred, lets assume the world was better off to act.

What I can say for certainty is what brought the economic catastrophe was NOT corrected, and this is the greatest sin since March 2009.  The world pissed away about 5 years that could have been used to fix the social economic order, instead we doubled, tripled down.     In hindsight, maybe thats all the world is capable of doing, keeping the same dance a moving until the song must change.

So here we are, lets take a look of signs of the Great Unwinding is starting to happen.

1) Countries currencies are destabilizing, with Argentina and Venezuela leading the way, Turkey looking to follow.
2) Greece after years of oppression is ready for fundamental change its only a matter of demographics as 45% hit below poverty line.
3) Various stock markets are hitting into trouble as Brazil plummets, US market hitting resistance,
4) HSBC, a very large Chinese Bank, is restricting withdrawals, not a sign of financial confidence for what is supposedly a global economic leading country....
5) US is bracing for a fundamental shift in retail, to last for potentially a decade of employment decline.
6) Banks in Germany, France, Spain, and others face a 1 trillion dollar reserve shortfall.
7) Back in 2008 I posted how China and India would squeeze USA of resources, with Oil as a key concern.  China is positioning to secure oil globally while USA uses local, temporary, fraking to cover the shortfall.
8) Global tensions are mounting, with various points of contention that could cause a catalyst for global tensions to flare, right now Japan and China are key contenders for sparking escalation.
9) In general, currency volatility is higher so far in 2014, with it expected to continue....
10) Gold on verge of possible break out, while not a sign of doom, it may be an indicator of economic sentiment change.

So while none of above really proves anything, we are opening 2014 with a heck of a bang!

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