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Sunday, June 23, 2013

Technology, driving the next economic reset

Most people don't know this, but economic structures like the one we live in resets every 100 years or so.  Resets can come in many different forms, the most extreme is currency is devalued or exchanged for a new system.  This is needed deal with the overhang of past people's financial obligations and the reality that the people who acted may no longer be living.  For example, the debt incurred during the Great Depression that was never fully paid off, what does debt from the 30's and 40's have to do with current 20 year olds feeling economic tension?

An economic reset allows the current generation to set a new set of rules, and move forward until that system no longer meets the needs of society.

In our current case, I have written how technology is applying pressures on a system constructed in 1913.  Technology further applies pressure by allowing much more to be accomplished with much less, raising the bar significantly of workers who can benefit from employment driven by innovation.

I have also written how we will see deflation for decades with an ever rising unemployment.   The bright spot I have written about is innovation in a future new currency system allowing more to participate, and an world revolution in manufacturing.

The current system places quite a bit of emphasis on real estate.  Partly because since 2001 the world banks have used real estate to grow paper wealth to drive more business activity and employment.  This drive I believe is reaching a peak in the next few years world wide.   What I believe will limit real estate valuation is yet again technology.  What if, a house could be built at higher quality, costing 1/10th the price of current house building?   What would happen to older house prices if a new houses could be built undercutting the old?

That is exactly what is in store for our future.  The same manufacturing revolution I noted above will drive to new technologies, yielding an economic bonanza for developing countries, but potentially a death blow to the west economic structure.

The ability to automate construction is getting a new twist with massive 3d house printing technology in it's infancy.  Such technology is not a threat in the next 3 years, but in 10? You an Guarantee it will come into play.

So we continue the race of the old system, rebirth into the new, whenever that comes.  For now, continue to sit back and watch the Great Degeneration as it unfolds.

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