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Sunday, September 16, 2012

Gold, Silver, and Oil, is the sky the limit?

There are huge forces in the global economy at work increasingly intense since 2008.

First we have the demographics of the baby boomers.  The Baby Boomers have basically dictated my entire job outlook and financial health.  As they go quietly into retirement, the shift will put strains breaking so many ponzi-like financial models such as Social Security, Pension funds, Medicare, etc.  And its not just USA, its Europe too.

Couple that with internet and computer efficiency ripping the face off of everything.  Anything that can be outsourced, is.  Anything that can be automated is being automated.  Never in history of mankind can so few people accomplish so much with robots, computer networks, and technological innovation.  Net effect is less  people employed to do same work. (Think checkout lines, toll booths, phone operators, etc, list is endless).

There is no question the USA lead a credit bubble of epic levels that popped in 2008.  But the US has not reformed anything, and instead is re-inflating the same old bubbles.   This may have been tempered by Europe and China, but recently, it seems they are changing too.

Europe had a model that required fiscal discipline, which by now should be well recognized to have been a little misguided.  The ECB is on track for monetizing debt USA style.  As this becomes reality, a MAJOR deflationary force will cease, or at minimum slow down.  For if countries don't implode like dominoes in Europe, then deflationary forces are reduced.

China was on track for reforming from export nation to consumer nation.  And they may still be.  However, the shift is proving painful, so painful that their next leader to lead the next revolution is MIA.  Mish has great summary of the situation.  If it turns out China is going to go back to export nation full steam ahead and not see through reform to consumer nation, yet another global force is shifting back.

Ben Bernanke of the US Federal Reserve will be on track for owning large part of the US Mortgage market, upwards of half in a few years with latest announcement.

Couple the above forces to reduce deflation, couple that with political tension escalating.
China fighting over Japan for territorial issues, US embassy attacked in Egypt, I see this possibly escalating as tensions rise economically.

I see this all good for precious metals and oil.  Political tension, deflationary reduction on a "monetary" level, counter to employment deflationary forces which still persist.  Jeffrey Lacker of the Federal Reserve sees inflation as a likely outcome.

The world is entering into a global recession, but with intense efforts from US, Europe, China, and elsewhere this next recession may be short, followed by intense commodity price upsurge.

A global economic cascade like 2008 could derail this view, but barring a deflationary event, I see resources are at a good entry point.  STAY AWAY from industrial metals, as china has been primary driver, and has huge over-stocks on supplies.

GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, OIH, GCC, and DBA are decent ETF's to look at, however this week we should hopefully see a pullback.

With the USD having plenty of room to fall further, all of this makes for interesting observation.

1 comment:

  1. Oil Little Changed as Jobless Claims Curb Gasoline Rally, Oil for October delivery settled at $91.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Regard
    Futures facts