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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Two day Federal Reserve Meeting

Back on September first, with post titled "Know when to hold em, when to walk away", I stated I didn't like the market setup, between then and the Federal Reserve meeting late September. The market is slightly lower since then, and dropped quite a bit lower earlier in the month.

Today marks the second of a two day meeting for the Federal Reserve Bank.  They will of course announce today.

The question is, what can they announce to change anything?  Assuming they don't announce something extreme that immediately tanks the US dollar, there isn't anything they can do to "save" the global economy.  They cannot provide political and global leadership to stimulate economic prosperity.
The function of the Federal Reserve Bank is to set banking and monetary policies.  Although extreme banking and monetary policies helped put us into the global economic imbalance situation, it isn't purely caused by the banking actions.

Overall we have a deflationary situation with western countries not producing enough to cover their expenses, with Asian countries providing the production of goods and increasingly services at much lower cost.  The US does not have a new innovation driver that will pull the economy out of this funk, nor does Europe.   There is a fundamental economic imbalance between countries that must eventually correct.  Having the federal reserve bank lower rates, or do some other trickery does not provide a cure to the western economies, it can only provide pain killers to give short temporary relief.

I'll leave the door open it is possible the Federal Reserve announces something so extreme, that the markets move. Generally speaking the Federal Reserve Bank is near out of any significant options.  I expect in the years ahead their announcements will become increasingly marginalized as the wizard behind the curtain is exposed.

For me, this is very disturbing, back in 2008 and since then I have marginalized the Federal Reserve Banks ability to make any sort of dent in the fundamental economic driver of the USA and western countries.  Here I am now facing that very reality becoming more obvious to the world, and now that it's here, the precipice is presenting itself.   Now I hope that the fed proves me wrong!


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