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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.
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Friday, April 15, 2011

US Dollar, Gold, and Market Timing

The US Dollar is heading for a break of the 2009 lows, as you can see in the chart below.
Given my view of the world and gold, my gut tells me I should be all in on gold and miners as the dollar hits the bottom and reverses.

However at this point in the market events, I only trust Gary of the Smart Money Tracker. It has taken me years to get to the point of trusting Gary's judgement, and in this pivotal historical event, I am putting myself in Gary's hands.

I strongly recommend if you are going to play precious metals to pay for Gary's service. I'll honor his service by not repeating or duplicating his charting. But I will lift one quote from Gary's service to summarize his position.
"Once the dollar bottoms then gold will Correct".

Gary has a large amount of material over the last year to support his logic, and I encourage readers to pursue reading why Gary believes above will occur.

Sufficient to say, this is a big leap of faith on my part, for I'll be sitting on my hands waiting for Gary to instruct his readers to push all in. Right or wrong, thats what I am going with.

I am still heavily in AVL, and will likely dump 50% of my position at the moment Gary tells me to go into gold. I reserve the right to change my mind between now and then.

I am also going to buy a little of URA, at about 14.80, ETF for Uranium, to read why, click here.

I do believe once the USD breaks all time lows, we will enter into a surreal market, that will be difficult to navigate. And the politicians you can bet will have a surprise announcement in an attempt to sway the markets. What I am most curious about is what will mark the USD bottom, just mere sentiment and open interest in shorting the dollar? Or will meaningful change of the US government be announced?

The worst case scenario for me is a USD outright drop, and gold spikes up hard, for I then will question Gary's logic. But I think its too early for USD demise, and thats yet another reason why I trust Gary.

And finally, I will not sell my core position in precious metals until a fundamental change occurs in world finance...such as USA proposes a balanced budget and enforces financial laws.

Good luck.

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