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Thursday, March 17, 2011

What happens if USD collapses

When I talk about USD devaluation, I get looks from people "that can't happen", "I don't understand", or more likely a change of topic.

A coworker even talked like I am expecting mass death of US citizens. I corrected him, many countries implode over the history of mankind. Greece used to default and become insolvent on a regular basis before allowed to join the EU. Argentina is a modern day example of having a countries currency reset multiple times.

I am not of the mindset that a collapse in the USD equals mad-max. America will reinvent itself, maybe for worse, but not be wiped off the face of the earth.
So my side obsession is placing what money I do have into investments that will retain value, such as commodities. The problem is, I have a hard time believing this year the USD will hit a true crisis. I do think its 2013-2017. So I am trying to be nimble, and I am not against cash investments.

Problem is, when cash is obvious to be bad, by that time gold, and other safe havens will be so expensive, level headed people will not buy, due to it looks like an extreme bubble.

I ran across a video that tries to illustrate an example of how the USD collapse may come to pass. I do agree with the video that China will be the key ingrediant to make it happen. As of now, China is "stuck" and cannot implode the US for fear of mass unemployment in China. Also, China's bubble makes USA bubble look immaterial. So they are hardly in a position to go popping bubbles.

But all of this will eventually get rectified in China, one way or another, and then they won't have any reason to NOT pop the USA bubble.

Or I can see a nice, orderly decline for US over the next 8 years with never a USD crisis.

In any event, fyi video, grain of salt, interesting.

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