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Thursday, January 27, 2011

Mathematical explanation for pending global crisis(es)

From various angles I have covered why I believe that all is NOT well, and that the worst is ahead, and not behind us, from the 2008 crisis.
The root causes of the 2008 have been completely ignored, as we move full steam ahead in an attempt to prop up balance sheets through "new accounting rules" that promote better earnings. All the trickery used gives the illusion that economically things are better, but valuations in stocks, interest rates, etc, do not indicate the component where rules have changed that drive those prices.

In effect, I believe The Federal Reserve Bank, and others are 100% responsible for the next crisis, due to their attempts to make things look better, in a vein attempt that my "making people feel better" they will purchase more, and we will enter into a wonderful new 40 year boom.

I am not a believer.

I ran across this video, "Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?", that does a fantastic job of explaining how exponential math works, and how all exponential system result in some sort of a wall, or failure.
The video is a little rough, the narrator voice isn't the best. Focus on the content, and understand, it is not possible to have exponential growth indefinitely.

Without knowing the details of every economic model, every facet of economic theory, this basic mathematical principle should give pause for thought.

However, this does not prove that our over-reach to perpetuate infinite exponential growth will fail tomorrow or in 2 years. The point is, the actions today are not focused on bringing economic systems back to reality, instead, the actions are focused on "extend and pretend" to continually show the same growth rate as before.

This goal is mathematically impossible. The result will either be a worse than 2008 (over time) collapse OR a collapse in the USD valuation, which will result in the same real term valuation being realized, by changing the valuation of the measuring stick, the dollar. For the underlying exponential growth cannot be sustained, and the laws of mathematics will force the reality upon us in some way.

I have added this to my "Financial Ground Zero" Series, as it does a good job of explaining how the insanity being pursued by the financial players will not end well.

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