On August 24th, I posted an entry called Ditto Head, where I basically stated I finally became a convert of Gary of the Smart Money Tracker. While I always agreed in general with Gary that precious metals is a good long play in these uncertain economic times, I have been skittish on Gold, Silver, and Gold/Silver miners at times.
Gary on his blog, and on his paid service, is now calling for a possible pullback on gold/gold miners starting as soon as Monday, but the bull will resume. I am not going to republish from his paid service the details of what levels he is predicting, duration, targets, etc.
While I am confident that in the next three yeas Gary is going to make some huge mistake (he is human), I am also confident his insight and methodology is sounder and more accurate than anything I could come up with. Therefore, if you want the odds in your favor, seek out his advice and invest at levels your comfortable with considering the risk the international market faces.
My blog is just going to be commentary on the financial goings on, politics, etc, and not for specific investment advice for the foreseeable future.
With that said, I also believe Gold is the last, and Ultimate Bubble, one that will come with the eventual international currency crisis. And all bubbles pop. I do NOT believe gold is money, and I do NOT believe Gold is a lifelong investment.
Gold is a commodity, like coal, or oil, or copper. And the hedge why I have always liked gold is as India and China have more paper money liquidity, more money will flow into gold. Both these countries have 1,000's of years of the common people having gold as a centerpiece in the social behaviors. Between the economic and political uncertainty, and 2.5 billion people having more paper money to spend in commodities, is why I like precious metals.
But in the very long run (5 years? 10? 50??) Gold will pop, like all bubbles. But I'll worry about that if/when Gold really starts to skyrocket as a parabolic blow off is occurring.
So, lets take a look how the ETF's and stocks I mentioned on August 24th have done in 30 days, since I announced I am now a Gary Ditto Head. (Note Gary sticks to gold/silver, does not dabble in food)
UPDATE: I screwed up making the chart below, i forgot to make the prices static for 9/24. See post Ditto Head, 7 weeks later
I will be adding this post to my New Reader.