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Sunday, February 8, 2009

Stimulus plan losing its luster

Obama save-the-world through a spending spree is starting to get criticized. Although I am a critic too, what amazes me is, where were the critics when Bush & Congress "gave away" 350B dollars with. Now that Obama is in, the critics are getting some air time.

The government is truly clueless as they argue over finer details that WILL NOT MATTER in the events to unfold. Right now the Senate has changed the bill, quote:

To reach that deal -- pegged at about $827 billion -- $40 billion in aid to states was nixed as was $16 billion for school construction, among other spending. But it still differs from the $819 billion bill that passed the House on January 28.

Talk about egos. a 800+ BILLION spending bills getting held up over 40B in aid to states and 16B for school construction as the big ticket items? They are arguing over 5-10% of the 800B+ spending?

There are some heavy politicians determined to "get their" cut for their favorite stuff, while the world loses faith DAILY over the Obama rescue package. What these clowns will learn is, they can't buy back the faith lost. The whole point of this thing was to get optimism out there, as it gets dinged daily, it just increases cynicism.

So what's the solution for Obama? Congress already approved 700 Billion, 350 Billion already spent. So now, this administration will ask for 1 TRILLION more to help the banks tuesday-ish. That is IN ADDITION to the 350 Billion left in the TARP from last year, in addition to 800+ Billion Stimulus and the Nations Debt spending over 500 BILLION annually, and in addition to each state debt spending in the Billions. Finally this is in addition to the Billions companies are debt spending, and the US individuals maxing out credit cards. Boy, am I sorry I sold ANY of my TBT, this may be the play of the year. US Government issuing 3.6+ TRILLION in bonds may "jump the shark" for US Debt in one year. AND this assumes NOTHING else goes wrong in the next year needing more cash....
Click here on how all this translates into 10 Trillion in government risk. That is 1.3k per human on the planet!

Enough of this rant, time for another. UPDATE 2/9/9: See more from Mish on "stimulus" spending (click), Rant from Karl (click) I got a few more in me. :)

Everyone doesn't get it. The solution isn't to freak out and spend 3x more debt. Its to get control of ourselves and accept that the US needs to cut back and stop debt spending. Yes, more companies will fail, yes, unemployment will continue to rocket, but the bottom will get hit sooner and be less severe. UPDATED 2/9/9 Gary's email service (click to buy) on Feb 7th lays out that total world wide losses easily surpass 60 TRILLION. Spending 2 Trillion is a rounding error, and can't stop the monster.

This massive debt spending will facilitate an impressive USA implosion beyond my own vision if the US continues on this track of spend and deny reality.

So this week may be "mega disappointment" week. I can see the US cracking to new lows, below DOW 7.552 won't shock me. This all depends on the announcements of successfully getting funds to delay reality. Also the market rallying for best Market performance for the year wouldn't shock me this week. Hence why I'm just watching.

I'm will continue to sell my market longs, slowly, (over next few weeks) and get more cash to be able to withstand a possible implosion of the market. I'm still loving gold miners, GDX, but trying to not get too optimistic and resist buying here. Maybe I'm wrong. But I can't risk more, unless there is a pullback to "reduce" my risk of buying.
Matt Bors

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