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Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Investor Dinner

Monday night, I met with 1 hedge fund guy, 1 professional self employed day trader, 2 professional day traders, me and my bro (we are the pity invites).

Unfortunately, there was no "invest in plastics" moment like The Graduate. There where various opinions on
  • if we would rally with Obama announcements
    > Split decision on 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 1 year rally on announcements
  • What is the best investment vehicle "all things considered" (wow, GDX, imagine that)
    > Pretty much no dissent on GDX as one of the safer plays in next year or two
  • What countries will implode (CORRECTION on order)
    Eastern block sovs (lithuania, latvia, poland, estonia, hungary, bulgaria, etc) , Ireland, Britain, Japan and others)
    > Few of us had the insight to contribute, but Japan was the shocker for me. Apparently the Yen has rallied hard AND Japan has seen the worst decline ever of any industrialized nation in a decline in a short period of time. Plays discussed where short Yen vs Canada or Yen vs USD
  • The long term view of USA banks
    > Majority will be owned by US government, either outright or through "backdoor games" creating zombie banks, like Japan
  • Several of us had bad things to say on Wells Fargo (note to self, buy long term lottery ticket puts)
    > Previous post I states WFC was insolvent, I should have shorted it when it was 32 and rode it to zero, for that matter ALL of my plays came true and then some in 5 months!
  • Pretty much no direction on the new world financial power that emerges AFTER this is over with. (China/USA/other was topic)
  • Everyone agreed that OIL in "long term" is a no-brainer, but no one had a strong opinion of OIL hits a low of 35, 30, or 25, bucks a barrel and when it recovers.
  • And finally, some very entertaining stories on multi-millionaire stories
For the last bullet I have asked for the stories in email form, and I'll publish each of them. I count myself as lucky to have heard over the past decade countless people who have multi-millions from trading only to go bankrupt, to help keep me grounded into reality.

I am more torn than ever if an Obama rally will happen or an Obama spike then a sh*t the bed happens. As one of the guys said, if you look historically, every great decline has had a short term rally before rolling over. One thing I can say about the last year, I am hard pressed to say this has been a direct repeat of history.

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