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Friday, January 2, 2009

Market Trend prediction 2009

This entry isn't a prediction you should trade on. But it is my and "Happy John's" view of the world. Happy John is a friend of mine who is a professional trader. Many of my ideas are his recycled. I do read, form my own opinions, and contribute to his thoughts, but he is the brains driving my direction. :)

  • Oil will go up on Q1 of 2009. Oil as it is priced right now is a great buy for people wanting to buy & hold for 10 years. It may be a buy of a lifetime. Thats not to say before 2009 is out that oil can't hit lower than current.
  • Oil for shorter term traders, on the pop up in Q1, will sell significantly out of this trade. Oil went straight down from 140 to 36, it needs a counter rally.
  • Gold valuation is unknown for Q1/2/3. Long term Gold is a great buy here again, and will be higher in the next 2 years. GDX is is currently at 33, and will hit over 55 in next Q1/Q2, target is close to 100 in 2009. This will be due to golds high price, but low energy costs and cheap labor (other miners such as copper laying off in droves).
  • If gold collapses, will recover by Q4.
  • The market will have a rally over Obama and his policies to save the world as the new savior. The rally (or trade sideways, lack of collapse) will last into Q2
  • In Q2, the market will pull back, sucking the bears in for the short of a lifetime. They will be disappointed as the market rallies back in Q2/Q3 and hurts the bears.
  • After the rally of Q2/Q3, the market will finally collapse to new lows in Q3/Q4.

Update: Happy John agreed with this entry, and I had to correct his mistake in his comment. ;)

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

UPDATE 7/10/09: 2009 predictions revisited, half way to hell


  1. This is "Happy John". I agree 100% with everything that Murf wrote here in his blog. We work very closely together, so it is safe to assume that I pretty much always agree 100% (or at least 99%!).

    Murf gives me too much credit. He definitely is a HUGE contributing factor behind our success. Also, Murf is too humble to write this, but he was up just about 1000% in his account for 2008. For a year where the market went down 40%, and nearly every investor worldwide got completely crushed, this is quite an extraordinary accomplishment.

    For friends and family of ours, if any of you are still using a financial advisor, ask them if they were up 1000% in 2008!


  2. hehe, too kind john. And I wasn't up that much just in 2008, it was the in last 18 months, so half of 2007 and all of 2008 :)