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Thursday, January 8, 2009

Is the market rally over?

It is possible that Wednesday marked the end of the market rally, and its time to dive to much lower levels. But I don't believe it is time yet. To the right is an updated version of the graph I drew the other day. Basically if the market moves "below" the light blue line, I'll start getting concerned, and may lighten (but not close) my long positions. If the DOW moves below 8,175, I'll admit I'm wrong, close all long positions, and go mega short.

If you read my "twitter" messages (click to see) I lightened up on my index longs. I *should* have bought them at EOD Wednesday back. However I'd rather get even a cheaper price. I will put bids in for a few things.

OIL took a massive hit. In Hindsight, my twitter post that I was considering selling some DXO would have been the smart play Tuesday. For now, I am holding. If it cracks below 2.35, I may dump out. Otherwise around 2.50, I may buy quite a bit more.

So what caused the fall Wednesday? How about this news. ADP Says U.S. Companies Cut 693,000 Jobs in December and U.S. December Job Cuts Quadruple From Year Ago.
So how can I be betting the market is going up with such horrific news? First off, if this was 3 months ago with such horrible job news, the DOW would be down 600 points, 400 EASILY. Down 245? HA! Thats a punk move. I suspect Friday's governments "official" job claims report will be bad, but not as bad as ADP, and that will be seen as good, allowing us to move materially higher.

In reality, it IS bad. State systems are failing because they cannot take the claims load. But I am not trading reality, I am trading the market. :)

Someone was buying to keep the DOW from being 600 down. And my bet is, its the smart money.

I'll post another news round up either Thursday or on the weekend, quite a bit of other news out. But none of it matters. The market is deaf and dumb, and knows one thing, up. But NOTHING goes in a straight line. We needed this to continue the advance.

If the market ends down on Thursday, EOD I'll load up a bit more.

If you think I go off the deep end sometimes (like my war on blue collar America post), check this video out, from European news station. Funny thing is, at principle (NOT the fatwa part) I agree with this guy. I just wonder if I sound like this to people around me. ;)

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