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Monday, December 1, 2008

Where My head is

I posted a while back my "thesis change", from a bear to bullish in the near term, stated my preferred play is commodity based stocks.
Since I believe the market can tank, very hard, at anytime with significant new information, its difficult to recommend going long.

I expect ups and downs, but generally up through Obama as president. How can this happen? The economy beat down that has happened in Sept-November will be easier to beat next quarter. Gas is much cheaper, which will lead to energy-dependent companies beating earnings estimates next quarter. People will start to comment the bottom was in, get back into the market, etc.

Then at some point, Jan - March, the trend will shift down, perhaps very suddenly.
The next down leg, if it breaks our recent low of DOW 7,552, will mark the next leg down and possibly an all out collapse.

The US just had a 4 day up streak, it isn't far fetched to expect Monday to be a down day.

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