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Sunday, October 26, 2008

China positioning to take out Americas Dominance

The USA has lost it's credibility as a world leader on almost every front in the last 8 years.
  • As world protector and military leader, its action on preemptive strike changed the US as world protector to world bully. The good will from US attack on 9/11/01 was spent rather quickly on the Iraq War.
  • The USA lost its position as world change leader on environment reform, social reform, human rights, education, and other social issues America regressed on all fronts.
  • As world financial leader clearly America lead the way for the world into this situation. The World however, is 100% to blame for following our lead rather than questioning the soundness of "new financial instruments". Its easy to blame the US, but apparently much harder for the world to take responsibility for their own actions.
  • The US Debt machine is out of control. The US hasn't had ANY fiscal restraint since 2000, and in last few months, easily doubled direct and indirect debt obligations with across the board the government taking on risk. In time of panic, this is viewed as leading and innovating, once the dust settles a more critical eye will be cast onto the US.
  • The US dollar in the last 8 years had taken an enormous hit, up until a month ago. In the last month the US dollar is rallying at a parabolic rate. Once this fever is broken, it may be the last hurrah's for the US dollar. The US dollar, until last year or so, has been the standard for trading Oil, Banking, and all aspects of Finance. This has translated that the world has had to "deal" with the dollars weakness on a daily basis for years.
Make no mistake, I am not a "fan" of China. However China has masterfully played its hand in the last 20 years while America has given everything to China without demanding same business rights as they have to America. China has no debt, 1.3 Billion people with an economy growing at 10% (this is their current recession rate), and obviously world military leader.

For obvious reasons, I don't believe the world is looking for China to take center stage to dictate the political tone for the next 100 years. However, the world may have no choice.

China has a closed system, not allowing trading in their currency, allowing no one to buy into their stock markets, real estate, and therefore operate without direct global financial influence.
China, could at any time, change this. They could open their currency and markets to world investments. If this was to occur, the world may decide its safer to "store" its wealth in China over the USA, which would immediately collapse the USD and Bonds.

I am NOT predicting this occurs. This however clearly illustrates that the USA as a debtor nation is very weak, prime for its competitors (or enemies) to take it out without a bullet shot. DEBT IS NOT GOOD, as some have suggested over the last 30 years.
Between the USA's own resistance to providing transparency, allowing private busiensses to recognize financial losses, socializing every business in sight, other countries failing, there is one country with world clout that no one is questioning their strength, China.
America has completely failed at leading through this trying time. This story has not yet fully unfolded. When it has, the 9/11 transformation will pale in comparison to the new world view.

China's banks are now calling for the USA to be dethroned from its position as world currency. China will never let up and will continually attack the US as world leader undermining its actions until it gets what it wants.

I hope I am a complete lunatic on this topic and 100% wrong on this topic. I want the USA to stand center stage for the world for the next 100 years. However, I don't see the actions earning the right to keep the responsibility and center is currently holds. Maybe the next decade the new leadership will rise to the occasion to change the course of America. I can hope, but will prepare for the alternative.
UPDATES on news items for this topic I'll add below
10/27/08 - Case for Chinese Yuan to be world currency

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