The final market bottom

If we get a downdraft in the markets, I do think for the next generation of companies, that is the time to buy for a lifetime.  Technology is accelerating, the problem now is our ability to affect change quick enough.  For companies that cannot adjust quickly, their value will continue to go down.  In effect we will have a repeat of 1929, a cleansing of the old and a birth of the new.

This is a great video to watch, to appreciate we are about to live through transformation that is unthinkable by every human, as we cannot appreciate exponential change with AI.   

Buckle up!

Picking a direction

 I lightened my longs today, and added shorts.

Ill give til Tuesday to see if i am wrong.

We could be at this level with big money buying for a run into 2026 or big money is selling into people buying.

It is truly impossible to know unless you are in the US administration or market makers.

Good luck on guessing correctly!

Next Leg

 Market is gaining ground slowly.  Assuming close of Monday is above 666, a clear signal higher that 663 pivot I have been watching, then time to get bullish again.

A caution note, China and USA are now in a full trade war.  Looking at reality that is not good for markets.   But if the charts show a positive trend, cant fight the tape.

I am keeping about half my assets in foreign investments, gold, bitcoin.

Decisions, Decisions

SPY Ended just below 663 on Tuesday, curious what the close of today will bring.  Who knows, bull into 2026 as long as we stay above 663.

Honor the charts for Market direction

I have been saying 663 is an important number, and notice that yesterday's market close at 663.04.

Yesterday being "above" 663 by 4 cents wasn't enough for me to close my shorts.
This isn't to say by Friday the market will be higher.

We went to 673, and that is materially above 663, and because of this I turned bullish into 2026 , simply because I need to look at the charts and honor what it is telling me.   I recommend if you are a bull, to look at the charts and use 663 as your bull/bear target.  In addition the US stock market is the most expensive in US history, you know what they say, buy low, sell high, and its high!

For now, I am shorted and closed out most longs, and today I'll reduce exposure to HIVE, etc. 
I will keep core bitcoin, gold, international ETF, etc for non-usa play.
Some videos to consider, one how the USA is moving to dictatorship economy, that will make trading near impossible once the corruption is fully into the system.
A few videos for your consideration.

Good luck!

Rocket running out of Fuel?

 

The market cleared all bear hurdles so there was no real bears left, hence my post yesterday.  It worked, I had lightened up my shorts and went long. 
Today SPY broke below the warning level of 663 with conviction.  I lightened up on my longs materially, and  I took on some decent short positions into the weekend. 
Any close of 664 or higher and I'll become bullish again.   Good Luck!

If you are long, take some off the table, but one day isn't a full market decision.  

Rocketing into 2026

While the entire US Economy crumbles, it seems like America and the world will be betting on a small sector with massive speculation.  The charts and the politics all point to no holds barred suck everyone into a market uptrend that will make the last 2 years seem quaint.

The only reservation I have is the American consumer and middle class are being marginalized.  But in the new world ahead, I don't think American middle class matters to the financial markets.

What will matter is using AI to reduce labor, increase productivity, and advance capabilities in a winner take all run.  The number of relevant public companies in this sector is small, with a material amount of private equity funding the core beneficiaries.

With less stock to purchase that is relevant, with massive money waiting fora  downturn that never came, I can see upwards of a 25% market gain from here to EOY, as insane as that sounds to you, its even crazier for me.

So while I can't advise go all in on this sentiment, I can say, you have to be in it to win it.

My last post listed some of the companies I am in, I will be closing out my shorts (most against specific companies) and look for long opportunities.  I didn't bet big on IREN and CIFR for the AI/Bitcoin datacenter play (I sold early), I am eyeing up HIVE as it hasn't made a run yet.

Stocks I like still is HIVE, FBTC (Bitcoin), SMR, TSM, URA, OKLO, SLDP.

Best I can say is good luck! Unless SPY closed below 663, there is absolutely no reason to be bearish.

Rocket into 2026

Today is "Turn around Tuesday" closing higher than Monday any day this week, and I agree with below.

The S&P 500 (SPY) has closed above 666 for multiple days, solidifying its advancement.

The red line is the SPY relative to dollar value, and the green/red bar line is the SPY.  Last week the market made a new high in US Dollar value terms.  That means up until last week, the most global purchasing power your life saving was lower since January of 2025  even though the SPY was much lower.

In any event, everything points upwards.  We may in-fact see a market parabolic up into 2026.  The consumer and employment numbers are not good, inflation is being sticky, electric energy prices are poised to remain high and continue higher.  But none of the USA negative attributes matter.  At the end of the year is when the US spends beyond its means (borrows) into the economy, and the market is showing signs of bullish.

I expect crypto to explode upwards, energy stocks, and the current fad sectors.    The only thing I see negative is even I have materially reduced shorts (not zero).  The market tends to top when even the bears buy in.   Big money, such as investment funds, have been selling and reduced their market exposure.  It is possible they give in, and start buying to not miss out into the end of year.

This all changes nothing about the end game, this ends in tears, the us economy is in shambles, people are bankrupt, unemployed, priced out of housing, the staple costs exploding up, healthcare about to double.  In effect the US as the worlds consumer is about to end, and that was a key attribute the world had become dependent on.

Key holdings: FBTC, RGLD, HMY, BKKT, CIFR, FETH, FBTC, SMR, TSM, URA, INTC, OKLO, SLDP. buying HIVE

Key international:  INDA, SHLD, EZA, EWW, EFAV, EWL (Switzerland, not a growth play), 

Key shorts (limited size): LOW (option bear call spreads), STLA (puts from Sept 2024),  CNI, SLG, FNGD.