I posted on March 11th at 5pm time to go long, indicating time to cover shorts the 12th and go long. The bottom was March 13th. Not too bad on the timing!
So now we stay long another decade and reap the rewards? Unfortunately, no. The Trump administration is determined to break the economy, so by the time he leaves office we can be on an upswing. Just kidding, he isn't leaving office in 2029.
Back to the markets! In the next 7 days we will see the next top, 2-3 weeks after the bottom as mentioned on the 11th. So in the week ahead, I will be selling my longs around 5900-6000 S&P 500. (SPX) I expect "chop" for a bit, and I'll start easing into short. This time around there is too much crazy to go hard core short into the next downturn. I do NOT think the next downturn breaks the low on the 13th, and we will bottom between 4/7-4/14. We will have a bull return topping around first two weeks of May. THAT next bull will be followed by a spectacular failure below the 13th.
That is the one I'll bet hardcore short.
Some readers don't like up/down short term trading conversation.
Decent longs through this period are:
RGLD - why? True diversification outside of USA assets. Its a gold miner in England. You get the protection of a stable country (for now) and gold mining upside. Gold has been on a tear, and I expect it to be the big winner of political instability.
INDA - ETF India. Why? Great diversification outside of USA assets. This India ETF has great dividends, it is the worlds largest democracy, has zero demographic challenges compared to the west, plenty of internal growth prospects, and a tech-savvy country. When America moves from old IT to AI driven IT, India driven workforce will remain relevant for transition and maintenance.
GBTC - Bitcoin - This one is by far the riskiest. I do not think Bitcoin will withstand the selloff in mid-April. Its fine to purchase now, but consider lowering exposure in mid-April. Over the year ahead I do think Bitcoin hits 400K, just it will have a challenging ride. Has potential of Trump pump and dump to help Musk and insiders at anytime, gapping up 100% or more overnight. They will use "not tax payer money" through gimmicks, but it is taking from USA citizens (boomers) to pay off younger.
PLTR- Why? Trump administration is poised to make a political play with a BIG contract to show "savings" from government waste. Its a defense contractor with the magic of AI! It also has the benefit of paying off all the military insiders buying the stock for their loyalty. ($75 on March 12th, now $96) If this stock can close about $100 two days in a row, it should go much higher.
I will make a post of comprehensive list of good long term holds. The theme will be highest tech , outside USA assets, and this administrations quick fix pumps.
