I covered almost all my shorts Monday, as Friday or Monday did NOT get a meaningful low.
We are in an "A wave" down, following Elliot Wave Theory". We will get a B wave up, probably around SPY 5005-5050 range, and then we will get a major wave down bottoming in May.
So enjoy the ride up over the weekish again before the pain train returns.
I am looking for re-entering shorts in the range above. Good luck!
Leading up to April 9th I went heavy short. With news of explosions of Iran combined with 5 days of market weakness, a flash crash maybe on the table.
If we get an extreme market down, I expect SPY 4900-4800 range to hold. If correct, the counter rally will be very painful if short.
Its very hard to cover shorts when your finally in the green. Lessons from the past, nothing goes in a straight line. I may go long or simply wait to get reshort.
If we break on a closing basis SPY of 4800 its going to get very interesting, and being short would be huge. But I cant take that chance with such a sudden drop.
Good luck
If you look at the market leader NVDA, it has been moving sideways since first week in March. This is either eating time off the clock for a new explosion up or there is material selling occurring since then. If the latter once the late comers have exhausted their purchases, we can expect a 20-25% cut in price.
Since NVDA market cap dwarfs all other stocks in the S&P 500, this would be a material top until a new 'growth story' like AI with NVDA can drive the market higher.
Consider stops to keep profits and be ready with some cash. I expect this bear market be a up, down, up, down, repeat through the election.
The BEST guy to watch for daily targets is: https://www.youtube.com/msforecasting/videos
