Lightening up on gold

 My gold miners are up 40-50% since October, I am selling.   In a deflationary collapse gold does very poorly.  Taking profits

Strap on in! Bumpy ride ahead!

 Money is feeing banks in volumes never seen before in the US.  Bank give 1% or less on savings, while bonds, and now Apple give 4% or higher.   As banks lose deposits they must adjust their balance sheets. 

Bank stress isn't over until this imbalance changes.

Further, we are seeing insiders dump stocks in record numbers, as executives see business slow down.  They want to get out before there is a massive stock sale.

I have more shorts than at any time since January 2020 in preparation for the pandemic.  I think the market peak is in, and even if some turbo final blow off rally occurs, the top will be in then.

The downtrend should be 5 to 10 years before we see new market highs.

Safety is 1-3 US Federal Treasury bonds.   You can consider putting some into Gold miners like "royal gold", or ETF's like India.  But in a deflationary collapse everything should go down except us Federal Treasuries.

Strap on in, if you keep your stocks, catch you in 2030 before we come to these levels.

Good luck!

If you want to short, consider SPDN, its a 1x short.  My concern on 3x shorts is we have seen high multiplier ETF's fail like when Oil spiraled. I lost I think about 10K when those ETF's failed.

A leveraged short is SPXS or buy puts.  But I still don't think we will see a huge swoop down, more like a slow motion fail.

Good luck!

Oil is more cost inflation, pushing US recession hoping for Deflation.

 OPEC has announced cuts in oil to drive prices up with a target of 200 a barrel up from recent 60 a barrel.  

If the economy is going to slow massively before this announcement, then OPEC is really front running a massive cut in demand, trying to capture the story as 'they' not the fed brought the economy to slow down.

Alternately, if the US economy is actually strong as the FED and the US government states, then the Federal reserve attempts to command the world to lower prices by raising US government bond rates.  The idea being if the FED raises rates, cost of debt/credit goes up driving demand down.  The FEDs top goal is to ensure the USD faith in it across the world is maintained.  A hard, perpetual inflation would challenge this view.

So the FED wants inflation to go down, if OPEC is forcing oil higher, it will perpetuate inflation as energy is needed in every aspect of the economy.   This will FORCE the fed to maintain higher rates longer than they want in an attempt to bend the world to lower costs.  If this is the fight, then the recent agreements with China/Russia to the Saudi's and BRIC countries is really a first volley to tell the USA it won't be the one to dictate when demand slows.

China re-opened and IMO wants to drive global demand as the US puts the breaks on US dollar demand.

No matter how you slice this, OPEC cutting production will affect costs.  This is yet another attempt to push the US economy lower.

The market top may have just been hit or is close, as yet another break has been pulled.

A good video generally on OPEC oil and inflation, showing US manufacturing has entered a recession.

I re-iterate US stock market 30% lower from here, with maximum of 60% lower.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnUd4_h52TM