COVID and vaccinating

 I wrote early about the coming pandemic.   Fast forward a vaccine created in record time with incredible 95% efficacy.  5 months after being more widely available, we do not have enough people who took it.   I am a skeptic, and did my own reading for real statistics on the vaccine.   I am concerned about it being a new vaccine technology.   However here are the facts I weighed.

I am over 50, overweight, and near zero exercise.  We know statically I am in higher risk for death or long term consequences.   Those who smoke, or have other pre existing conditions have equal or more risk.   People who are athletes and under 25 can still die or have long term consequences. 

These are undisputed facts.  Even if you can calculate your risk of death or long haul COVID to be 1 in a 100, would you take that chance with a gun with 99 empty chambers and 1 bullet?   If you would, then accept your consequences.

For me the math with current knowledge is it’s lower risk for taking the vaccine.   

I read something interesting today about those who don’t want to take something experimental.   If you get COVID requiring hospital treatment, the hospital will give you experimental treatments.   So if you are against a new vaccine, and go to the hospital, you should also be against any experimental treatment.   Denying such treatment will dramatically increase chances of death.    So if you choose to not vaccinate, be sure to understand your commitment and consequences, and stick to your convictions.

I read an article from a doctor that struck me, triggering my desire to write this post.  If you are not vaccinated, consider reading.

“Well,” I said, “I can pretty much guarantee we would have never met had you gotten vaccinated because you would have never been hospitalized. All of our COVID units are full and every single patient in them is unvaccinated. Numbers don’t lie. The vaccines work.”

This was a common excuse people gave for not getting vaccinated, fearing the vaccine because the Food and Drug Administration had only granted it emergency-use authorization so far, not permanent approval. Yet the treatments he had turned to, antibiotics, monoclonal antibodies and hydroxychloroquine were considered experimental, with mixed evidence to support their use.

The only proven lifesaver we’ve had in this pandemic is a vaccine that many people don’t want.

Fir

Educate yourself on trading stocks, bonds, and crypto

I try to watch a wide variety of people who have a methodical approach to the market across a broad spectrum of methodologies daily.  I have my own opinions but calling a top is pretty foolish at this point.  Instead I am watching the analysts daily to help me understand when changes in investments are appropriate.

Each of these YouTubers have their own methodology, and I watch them all to get a cross-view of the market.  Rarely do they all agree.

The Bond King - Steven Van Metre  has done an EXCELLENT job educating me on US Bond investments and why.  He expects US bonds to go 'negative' in trading terms, will sell, and invest back into stocks.  His view applies to 6 month to 4 year horizon, a medium to long term trader.

MyStagicForecast - David Frost , his view is pure technical trader, its really only valuable for day traders, week, and a feeling for month.  His vision past the 2-4 week mark is near zero.   An active trader for decades he knows stock technicals.  If/when market cracks he would be very good to see when to get back in.  A short term trader.

AskSlim - Steve Miller,  Steve provides cycle trading, not pure technicals.  Its a pretty arcane way to view the market, but when he shows his odd cycle charts, I have to admit, it does seem to line up to market moves.  A medium to long term trader with views  1-3 month, 3-6 month, 6-12 month, and over years. He explains this arcane way in this video.

Heresy Financial - Joe Brown, by far the youngest of the group,  he provides a 18-30 year old perspective on the markets including bitcoin.  He does quite a bit of opinion pieces and is less methodical.  I do find his videos entertaining and educational.

J Bravo - By far the most entertaining, great to play a video game to is Johnny Bravo.  He does light technicals, and does mix news with his views.  He can be a bit over the top, which makes for good entertainment!   He aligns somewhat to The Bond King on macro view, but not on investment strategies.  He is in a long time bitcoiner!

George Gammon - He does a great job of breaking everything down to "3 easy steps!" lol!  He does NOT do stock predictions at all, but more on macro operations of Bitcoin, world banks, US Federal Reserve items (like the new Reverse Repo operation), and conspiracy 'light' videos.  I find 1/3 of what he published required watching, 1/3 questionable, and 1/3 probably too out there for me.  But he is entertaining.  A good conspiracy video is on the IMF, Bitcoin, Gold.

Real Vision Finance - Open a beer, get a snack, and get read for some in depth chats on macro crypto, currency, banking, and gold.   You need to cherry pick the information you consume, there is just too much on this channel.  I have watched some people who are extremely well versed in world markets guest on this channel, I highly recommend swinging by on occasion. A great starter video is Lyn Alden's Macro Masterclass

Lyn Alden - Lyn Alden is often a guest speaker on podcasts, but her views I find make great macro sense.  The best video to start is here, but its good to catch a few chats when you can.

Game of Trades - The reason I watch this youtuber is when he does technical analysis on bitcoin.  He also does stocks but people above are better.

Harry Boxer - Chart of the day - This guy is ONLY for day traders, you would need to pay to get real value.  But good to watch to learn the power of technical day-trading.  I rarely watch his videos as I have a full time job and really prefer medium to long term investing.

Well I hope one or more of these youtubers helps you!

Market direction

 The stock market indexes are strong, we could be building for a new leg higher or a top.  The trend is your friend until it dumps you.   I have been long bonds, but I lightened up a little on Monday.  I think bonds go much higher, so I kept a core position.  However, there have been some great gains since March and I didn't want to give it all back.

TLT went from a low of ~133 to a high of ~150, thats an ~12.5% rise in a few months.  

TMF went from ~22 to ~31, a 40% gain in about 5 months.

Obviously if the market tops right now, selling will miss the big move up in bonds.  But if the market makes one more epic push higher, TMF will likely move down materially.

Its a risk.

Until congress signs an extension to the federal budget debt ceiling, no new US bonds are being issued.  Therefore bond interest rates WILL move lower, and therefore bond value higher.  To learn more about how this works, read my post How bonds give bigger returns (or losses) than you expect.

I expect a return to the yellow line.  Good luck!