Counter Argument

 Yesterday I posted Sell.  Today I am thinking of any counter arguments to that position.    The USA market with tech maybe the world leader in the next few years.   If USA corporations can turn AI enabled capabilities into products, including robots, then even is Americans are suffering, the world will likely still buy US stocks.

Further if the world does not want to buy US treasuries, the next best thing to do with dollars is buy US corporate stocks, natural resources, or US real estate.  Basically move from USA paper money to assets.

While I still think stocks move lower, there maybe a path to the next low as an enduring, multi-year low in US stocks.   This is different than asserting US citizens will do better.  The result will be rich vs poor continues to accelerate.

So while I am still pessimistic, I will be looking to buy and hold future centric ETFs.   I’ll do a post soon in what those are.

Sell

Sell.  

OK to own US treasuries 5 year or less duration for next year or ETF of India INDA. Decent other holds are GLD, GDX, and potentially Bitcoin .  I do expect gold and bitcoin to sell off,  margins get called over the month.  But I do think over the year should not as bad as equities.

We are witnessing 75 years of US building a global economy being taken down.   I am not saying USA will do bad, but I am saying the transition wont be fun for the markets.

I do expect a near term bottom 10% lower from close Wednesday, then another counter rally, then lower again.  Highs for the year are in the past.

Good luck

Uncharted Road

 This next few days I expect some extreme market movements.   If the market close any week above spx 5800, I will rethink my bearish stance.

Until then I am looking for a rocket ride higher as a gift, a gift to re-enter my shorts.  Its not often I can say this, bit I am eager to see the market charts Sunday.

Good luck

Market Counter Rally over?

 Today the stock market is running a test.  Will the S&P 500 move higher or show signs that the counter rally is already over.  There are quite a few trend lines I have drawn, but the one I am watching is the ~45 degree green line in bottom right.   Posted on March 11th time to go long.  The bottom was on March 13th and that uptrend is being challenged.

From my previous post I do expect the counter rally to end within next few business days.  If you are unsure of this disposition, a break BELOW this green line on an EOD close should give you pause about remaining a hold.

I'll be looking to re-short today in prep for mid-April low.  That can be a new low for the year or not, and another base for a counter rally. THAT counter rally maybe more forceful.
For "buy and holds" see this post.

Bull and Bear Roller Coaster

I posted on March 11th at 5pm time to go long, indicating time to cover shorts the 12th and go long.  The bottom was March 13th.  Not too bad on the timing!

So now we stay long another decade and reap the rewards? Unfortunately, no.  The Trump administration is determined to break the economy, so by the time he leaves office we can be on an upswing.   Just kidding, he isn't leaving office in 2029.

Back to the markets!  In the next 7 days we will see the next top, 2-3 weeks after the bottom as mentioned on the 11th.   So in the week ahead, I will be selling my longs around 5900-6000 S&P 500. (SPX)  I expect "chop" for a bit, and I'll start easing into short.  This time around there is too much crazy to go hard core short into the next downturn.  I do NOT think the next downturn breaks the low on the 13th, and we will bottom between 4/7-4/14.  We will have a bull return topping around first two weeks of May.  THAT next bull will be followed by a spectacular failure below the 13th.    

That is the one I'll bet hardcore short. 

Some readers don't like up/down short term trading conversation.

Decent longs through this period are:

RGLD - why? True diversification outside of USA assets.  Its a gold miner in England.  You get the protection of a stable country (for now) and gold mining upside.  Gold has been on a tear, and I expect it to be the big winner of political instability.

INDA - ETF India. Why? Great diversification outside of USA assets.  This India ETF has great dividends, it is the worlds largest democracy, has zero demographic challenges compared to the west, plenty of internal growth prospects, and a tech-savvy country.  When America moves from old IT to AI driven IT, India driven workforce will remain relevant for transition and maintenance. 

GBTC - Bitcoin - This one is by far the riskiest.  I do not think Bitcoin will withstand the selloff in mid-April.  Its fine to purchase now, but consider lowering exposure in mid-April.  Over the year ahead I do think Bitcoin hits 400K, just it will have a challenging ride. Has potential of Trump pump and dump to help Musk and insiders at anytime, gapping up 100% or more overnight.  They will use "not tax payer money" through gimmicks, but it is taking from USA citizens (boomers) to pay off  younger.

PLTR- Why? Trump administration is poised to make a political play with a BIG contract to show "savings" from government waste.  Its a defense contractor with the magic of AI!  It also has the benefit of paying off all the military insiders buying the stock for their loyalty. ($75 on March 12th, now $96)  If this stock can close about $100 two days in a row, it should go much higher.

I will make a post of comprehensive list of good long term holds.  The theme will be highest tech , outside USA assets, and this administrations quick fix pumps.

Jittery Bull

Based on market action, I am questioning the market made a local bottom. Further money managers are not nearly as concerned about the market as the public. Lastly, I have a difficult time imaging what Powell can say that is truely bullish. whatever the action is today, Nvidia CEO is talking tomorrow. We need the market to close higher this week vs last week to maintain any bull stance. I will lighten my longs today.

America ending it’s supremacy

 Great summary understanding how America is the most influential power of the world.   How our dominance has benefited from this, and now how America is pursuing making life harder for Americans for generations.