Sold a BitCoin Today

I purchased 1 bitcoin back in 2020 , sold it today.  Why now?
Bitcoin was the one optimistic asset in my portfolio that I had the strength to hang in there.
But I do expect a market correction (been since August?) and bitcoin is now held by institutional investors.  I believe these entities are more likely to sell than the traditional buy and holders like myself.  Bitcoin holders since the coin's inception have been selling.  I suspect they believe the same thing I do.

In an asset crunch, people sell assets to cover their margin calls.  Bitcoin I think will be impacted materially.  This is the one place Gold does have an advantage, it takes more than a click to sell your gold "collection".

I am still in the game!  Sure $125K would have been better, but like I said,  having a bearish tilt on the USD global financial order, Bitcoin was (is) my long term hope.

I do still believe Bitcoin will hit $1M, even $10M a coin, who knows on what timeline.  I do think once the USA over-reacts to this bear run in US markets, Bitcoin is the first place to invest.

Going short again, surprised?

 The market has done a ridiculous good job of pushing higher.   The market has not been a rocker above SPY 666.

We could run up into extreme highs into next year, but I think that is the narrative the majority is banking on.

I do think a 2008 crash is now impossible, as the Fed chairman will be replaced in January, and the person will be a Trumper.  Trump has always run loose fiscally, as his multiple bankruptcies and defaulting on contractors.

So whenever the bottom is, I suspect in December or January.   The bitcoin and gold sectors will be safest plays for liquidity inflows.   As we print, there will be fear to invest in companies.   There are also less startups as tech centralizes power.  Therefore the currency will flow into ‘ponzi’ type assets.

Good luck!

The final market bottom

If we get a downdraft in the markets, I do think for the next generation of companies, that is the time to buy for a lifetime.  Technology is accelerating, the problem now is our ability to affect change quick enough.  For companies that cannot adjust quickly, their value will continue to go down.  In effect we will have a repeat of 1929, a cleansing of the old and a birth of the new.

This is a great video to watch, to appreciate we are about to live through transformation that is unthinkable by every human, as we cannot appreciate exponential change with AI.   

Buckle up!

Picking a direction

 I lightened my longs today, and added shorts.

Ill give til Tuesday to see if i am wrong.

We could be at this level with big money buying for a run into 2026 or big money is selling into people buying.

It is truly impossible to know unless you are in the US administration or market makers.

Good luck on guessing correctly!

Next Leg

 Market is gaining ground slowly.  Assuming close of Monday is above 666, a clear signal higher that 663 pivot I have been watching, then time to get bullish again.

A caution note, China and USA are now in a full trade war.  Looking at reality that is not good for markets.   But if the charts show a positive trend, cant fight the tape.

I am keeping about half my assets in foreign investments, gold, bitcoin.

Decisions, Decisions

SPY Ended just below 663 on Tuesday, curious what the close of today will bring.  Who knows, bull into 2026 as long as we stay above 663.

Honor the charts for Market direction

I have been saying 663 is an important number, and notice that yesterday's market close at 663.04.

Yesterday being "above" 663 by 4 cents wasn't enough for me to close my shorts.
This isn't to say by Friday the market will be higher.

We went to 673, and that is materially above 663, and because of this I turned bullish into 2026 , simply because I need to look at the charts and honor what it is telling me.   I recommend if you are a bull, to look at the charts and use 663 as your bull/bear target.  In addition the US stock market is the most expensive in US history, you know what they say, buy low, sell high, and its high!

For now, I am shorted and closed out most longs, and today I'll reduce exposure to HIVE, etc. 
I will keep core bitcoin, gold, international ETF, etc for non-usa play.
Some videos to consider, one how the USA is moving to dictatorship economy, that will make trading near impossible once the corruption is fully into the system.
A few videos for your consideration.

Good luck!

Rocket running out of Fuel?

 

The market cleared all bear hurdles so there was no real bears left, hence my post yesterday.  It worked, I had lightened up my shorts and went long. 
Today SPY broke below the warning level of 663 with conviction.  I lightened up on my longs materially, and  I took on some decent short positions into the weekend. 
Any close of 664 or higher and I'll become bullish again.   Good Luck!

If you are long, take some off the table, but one day isn't a full market decision.