I am on vacation this week, but I did find the time to dump my longs July 30th. This should come as no surprise as my posts have been pretty negative since June.
To me, we can have a sea of change once US government injects money into the US and global economy. Classic US government was to inject money using the tentacles of government into lower 90% of us citizens.
Since this government is dismantling this, I expect this downturn ends with this administration taking over the independent federal reserve. This will mark the end of any us dollar strength, as US takes the well known path of currency destruction. Since money will not be injectable into bottom 90%, the top 1% will do very well by government financial injection.
Pensions, fixed income of retirees will be destroyed in years ahead by inflation. The irony is baby boomers wealth lose the most, since people under 45 have almost no savings. This will be the start of the world financial reset.
Best we can do is try to ride the whip saw reaction as wealth tries to find a safe haven. I will buy more bitcoin on any extreme pullback, as its the only digital asset alternative to the financial system.
I do expect some companies resisting any material pullback as money will move to safety.
We may go higher next week, but we are seeing stress emerging. We will have material clarity in January after the car market resets, real estate market takes a dive, US sells 6 trillion in bonds, and existing wars hopefully end.
For now 1 year us treasuries are king until they aren’t. Good luck.
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