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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

The Top and the Bottom

So I am 60% confident the top is in. We could make a new, 'spike top' if Trump wins the election without any drama/uncertainty combined with a vaccine announcement. That would be THE top if that happens.
If we can't get a double punch of great market news of that magnitude, the top is in, so what is the bottom?

I think we will have a volitile but wiggle market with an overall trend down, straight through to 2028. The bottom I think is in 2028-2029. This is for OVERALL market. The top 30 tech companies should continue do to well and become bigger buying companies along the way. I have a hard time seeing these companies retreating over the next 8 years. (Amazon primarily in mind).

I use the S and P 500 and not DOW 30 as to me it is a better representation of the US economy. The recent high of 3,508 I think could retreat to 1000. The charts indicate as low as 500. I have a real hard time believing we can hit 1,000 or pass it materially.

The global banking system will simply print endlessly and would rather see a hamburger at mcdonalds cost 20 bucks than a market that retreats below 1,000. So in real purchasing power, I do think hitting 500 is in the cards.

But this isn't about real purchasing power, its about a better place for money to ensure relative wealth in the market vs individual companies vs bonds vs gold vs cryptos.
Over the next 8 years, staying in CASH IS TRASH, this includes bonds. Investing will be about every 6 months assessing which asset has greater chance of doing better. Cash has retreated by 10% in purchasing power since March. Now its the markets turn to take a hit. At some point it will be cash's turn again, and repeat. The overall wealth of the nation will need to be re-aligned to the world wealth.

Good luck!

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