Its no secret that I have been a perma-bear since 2006. While I was early for 2008 crash, I have been plain outright wrong since 2008 most of the time for the general stock market.
What I failed to grasp until SPX touched 1,000 briefly that the market has become a game of political global competition rather than an instrument of market capitalism.
Since 2009 mark to market accounting has been suspended, first time since the 1940's.
And yet, we are told that current valuations are trustworthy without the underpinning of valuations using practices in place for 70 years.
These and other tactics have made the market soar while avoiding some of the challenges the world economy faces.
Here we are poised for a huge leg up or possibly a bit of a kick down. I lean towards a kick down, with what may be possibly a very rapid kick up.
It should be obvious to any market watcher that so far in 2015 its been a bit choppy at best.
Right now however, we have quite a few things happening that are of interest.
First up is S&P 500, using my post for long term investing, we are still green, but a week or two down may change that picture:
Then we have Shanghai stock market, on a nice tear down, but this weekend china announced 19 billion dollar stock buy back to save the market. My question is once the insiders spend 19 billion on stocks, what if popular support does not return? How many more buybacks can 'buy healthy' economy?
UPDATE" 7-7-2015, over 900 trading firms in china HALT all trading http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/07/940-chinese-firms-halt-trading-china.html
Then we have Greece, about to leave euro, and threatening to be the first nation on bitcoin!
Holly hell that's a mighty f-u to the world banks. If Greece does it they will get PUMMELED by every bank in the world. Every news report will blame BitCoin as the source of every woe. Notice the last few years with Greece topping 50% unemployment by some age groups that no one reports that mainstream! But if they do go bitcoin, I am sure it will be daily headlines!
Then we have USD, its been up for a while, no indicator of up or down.
Institutional stock selling is at an insane fast pace in the USA! What happens if Hedge Funds or public get wind of this?
And of course gold, I won't even post a chart, its pretty much who the heck knows.
Then there is political turmoil with wars and ISIS.
I personally think between now and March 2017 we will hit a severe rough patch, but who knows when. The economic system is being muscled into line for the big boys to play ultimate chicken, as China is demonstrating.
But mark my words, the one to watch that will tell everyone that we have an issue is watch the US Treasury curve, 10 year under control at the moment:.