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Friday, August 16, 2013

Gold and Gold Miners, hoping worst is behind us

As of today, I am completely in gold and gold miners.  Any free capital in any account I have is all in.
Further, I have a small play in some calls, year 2017, so far in last 4 days up over 100% in value.
If this was 2009, I would have made some serious earnings, but I don't take risks like I used to.

My friend Happy John has been in fixed income primarily for last 3 years, and finally he is materially 'in' on miners.  A friend who used to manage a hedge fund is also in, and Greg 'the day trader' is in for a bit.

Gary of the smart money tracker is optimistic, and always with some caution.

Friend of mine got in near the low of GDX in pretty good.

Bottom line, what I have been waiting for since 2010 is here.  In September 2011 post titled "The Bear is Back" I stated:
Out of ALL Long stocks, and even resource stocks should get somewhat routed. The next upswing I think will be an explosion for resource based stocks on the upswing.  .... The USD crisis isn't until after the next upswing and the next cycle of down pressure. I still think 2013-2014, possibly as late as 2018, depending on how events unfold.

Routed isn't the right word for what happened to resource stocks.  A brutal beating the likes almost no one saw comming.   The US dollar is indeed falling, but it hasn't been a confirmed rout yet, so we'll see about the USD part.  But remember, my view of gold going up is UNRELATED to USD currency, that simply adds fuel to the fire.
From post in January 2011, quote:
Precious Metals – I have blogged many times, I do not believe gold is money. I therefore do not like gold as an alternate currency. It is frankly, insanity. Gold as money works in a mad-max world. I will not spend my life planning for mad-max. However India and china cultures are in love with gold. As 2.5 billion people can afford to spend more disposable income, one common theme in both cultures is buy gold! And of course, the alternate reason is there are plenty of people who do view gold as money. For whatever the reasoning of people purchasing, I expect gold gold gold to the moon.

India has placed a surcharge tax on all gold of 10%, and Pakistan has BANNED gold imports.   Seems like there is a slight uptick in gold buying, who could have seen that comming?

Now is the time to simply own GDX, GDXJ, GLD, and some individual gold miners and wait.

I expect this blog to be quite boring.  I may simply have a chart of Gold and Gold miners showing when at risk (if it happens) to be reversing.
I expect to hold these positions for 1 to 4 years, making a pretty boring blog!

Good luck to ya.  Gold went up pretty dramatically over last 4 days, taking GDX with it, to the chart!

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