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Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Apple

Back on Feb 16th, 2012, I posted "Apple chart and the Market".
Apple has just started its parabolic rise.  At that time, when Apple was worth $520 a share that consider putting in stops or taking some profits.

My timing was off, but the sentiment was true then and true now.  The stock went parabolic and became the worlds most valuable company in human history in August 20th, 2012 post at 664 a share.  Apple was worth more than Merck, Intel, Anheuser-Busch, Toyota, and Verizon combined within days after that post.

Looking back, that was clearly when the bell was rung , that Apple was near its all time high.  Apple may break that high, but I seriously doubt in the next 4 years ahead (if ever).

Here we sit, with Apple at 486 a share.  From a technical perspective, one can argue it is merely a correction for the stock to revisit new highs in the year ahead.  Perhaps.

But if Apple stock hits 450 a share and CLOSES the market at 450 or lower, to me, Apple is a broken stock.
The stock will have shattered it's uptrend in place since February 2009, 4 years later.  That should give anyone pause for thought.
As a techie, I don't like Apple's future, and I haven't since Google announced Android OS.
Apple to me is the IBM/Microsoft of phones, and Google the IBM PC clone/Linux competitor.  The innovation in Android can't be outdone by soo many companies against 1.    Hardware will continue to be commoditized  and the consumer won't see a difference in apple that is material than android.
And that is EXACTLY what Google wants! Commodity hardware but their software to enable Google services.

And I for one do believe, Steve Jobs cannot be replaced.  Apple faltered when they kicked him out, and they will falter again now that he is gone.  He was that good.

With that said, I have 3 iphones, 2 ipads, another iphone used as itouch, and a MacBook.
My father and nephews have iphone/itouches.  And I still recommend iphone to anyone non-technical.
But for the power user, the Google Nexus 4 is closing the gap.  There are not many gaps left, actually.  That is a setup for the year ahead for Android to outshine Apple, and that, will not be good for the stock.  Apple as a tech company could announce tech and surprise on the upside, to me that isn't as likely as when Jobs was running the show.

Further, the iphone form factor is NOT THE END GAME!  Next up is Google Glass, then something else, then brain control.  So unless Apple can lead in every new device in the years ahead, it will be a commodity player.

Combined with the news that Apple slashed orders, well, you get the gist.  If you own Apple stock, put a stop in.  Not for all shares, say, 25%, and repeat this pattern to ensure some profits are locked in.

If you held all the way to the top, don't hold all the way to the bottom, that isn't stock, that's a family member.

Trend line below since 2009.
EDITED 10:37 pm
Friend sent me this link on Apple options.  It indicates that the near term bottom of this downswing won't turn around until on/after January 18th.  So if the stock can stop the slide, and you actually want  more Apple stock, the 18th may be a good time.  I still remain pessimistic of Apple hitting 700 a share given reasons above.






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