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Sunday, November 8, 2009

What is going on in WebSurfinMurfs head

Life is picking up and is pretty freaking busy. My job has been full swing busy for last few weeks, and looks so straight into January. I just bought a house last week, and now I must move. And my son is about to hit 7 months, I suspect crawling any day now.

On top of all that, I was lucky enough to catch a break buying into the gold miners at the right time. So now what for investing?

Since life is getting so busy, I will continue to post, unfortunately I suspect my depth of posts will continue to suffer. I want to finish my money series, that I started a few weeks ago.

I wanted to take a step back and assess where the heck the markets are, and where they are going.

First off, I professed, and continue to profess the markets are going to 30 to 60% lower from the near term market high. Either the high has already passed ( SPX 1101.36) , or there is more to see first. To me, the markets ending up much lower is a "fact" not a question.
The question is, how does the market manifest the 50% lower target. It could be in the USD dollar crashing, (becoming worth less than other currencies), and the stocks don't rise as high as the dollar's fall. (example, dollar worth 1/4 of today, but markets up only 25% higher)

Or the USD, as I think we will see, firms up and gains vs other currencies, dragging the market lower. I have no clue if this is next week to start, has started, or won't start until March 2010.


But for the NEAR term, I can't add to shorts until I see the market retreating. What I am *guessing* at here is gold moves higher regardless, and gold will see 1,300 an ounce.

There are two bloggers that have my ear on gold. As always Gary of The Smart Money Tracker. Gary is frankly in a class of his own with gold. You would do you bank account a service to never read my blog again, buy his subscription, and read AND invest.

The other is a newbie to my ear, a guy named Harry Dent. He wrote a book called "The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010 - 2012". I listened to him in this podcast (click) and he made a ton of sense for his predictions. I am still a little leery of him, mainly since his investment service (which I will not pay for) is $5,000 for 1 year. Anyone who charges that much better either be THAT RIGHT or a snake oil salesman.
In any event, Mr. Dent calls for gold much higher in to January.

The last influence is a guy I know told me he just sold GDX 2 weeks ago. Since his timing is from the "non-investor" mentality, I figure his selling was likely the worst time possible. Yea, a bit crude as a reason for me to buy into the miners, but the market is after screwing with your head so you make the worst moves possible.

And since I have been on my high horse about natural resources is a good investment, I want to put my money where my mouth is. But I may change my mind at any time and go back to full pessimist mode.

So for now, I am back onto the GDX band wagon, I expect GDX to pull back to 44-43 before breaking 50. And if/when GDX closes above 50, we may see a really good ride for a while. Two other ideas for investing is RJA (food) at 7.43, DBA (food) at 25.52, and energy companies (XLE) 57.08. Set stops, buy in slowly, still be cautious. A catastrophic fall could be in the cards for the entire market.

I also have a TINY amount of shorts on my murfs stock plays.

Good luck.

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