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Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Bull vs Bear

I have fixated on watching the "exact top" of the US Stock market in the near future. With a potential 200+ SP500 move down, with possible SP500 move up of about 50, the risk to reward is to get short, not long.

With that said, we are still in the same situation. On Wednesday of last week, the market finally broke the bull run trend. However on Monday the bull market came back with a vengeance routing late to the market bears.

At the end of today, the bull trend line up is now "resistance", the market bounced off the bull trend line today. I am still concerned now through next Tuesday of the market rallying up to the 200 Daily Moving Average (DMA) line.

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

So if your in on shorts, or lottery tickets, I would advise caution on adding to these positions. Better to be late to the party than get yet another run against the position before the market breaks.

As a quick check, lets see how bad the short plays are now.

ALL of these stock plays assume you short the stock.

Stock 4/16/9 5/19/09 Percent Gain
AAPL 121.45
BAP 50.01 53.82 -7.6%
BBY 38.5337.25
EAT 18.7817.55 6.5%
DEE 82.72

DECK 62.33 49.79

WYNN 33.4740.05
new entries 4-24-095/19/09 ----

new entries 4-29-095/19/09 ----

CAKE 17.6516.09 8.8%
BWLD 40.60

All things considered, really not hurt that bad being short a market, after such a huge move up yesterday. DECK has really started to collapse, which is encouraging. In such a strong market, it has fallen. Very interesting. Wonder what will happen to DECK if the market falls.....

Also WYNN my big loser, is getting a little better. I won't even bother covering the lottery tickets, safe to say, they are a disaster currently. I'll post an update on them when we hit 200 DMA OR collapse. Until then they are very high risk positions as previously stated.

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