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Thursday, April 16, 2009

Market direction one day before options expiration

This Saturday, stock market options expire. Historically this event has been a magnet for odd stock market moves. I wouldn't be shocked if the market opens up down big Friday or Monday, as part of the market manipulation games that are occurring.

In any event, lets take a look at the DOW chart:

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog
The market has risen 24% in about 6 weeks, pretty far, pretty fast. Even though I do expect the market to go higher, possibly DOW 10K, the market usually doesn't make the move in a straight line. The market is over-due for a correction.

To give you an idea how significant 24% is, in 2003 from the recent market bottom, the market rose 24% in 24 weeks. And back then the world banking system wasn't under a possible crash scenario.
I won't bother posting the charts, but stocks I am (and most Happy John is also) shorting these stocks:

Stock 4/16/9 NA Percent Gain
AAPL 121.45

BAP 50.01

BBY 38.53

EAT 18.78

DEE 82.72

DECK 62.33

WYNN 33.47


The ETF DEE is kinda a crazy one, so I am doing only 100 shares to watch. If DEE gets to 100+ I'm in big. I'll reprint the list above when I start to cover.

Happy Johns "high risk" play is buying FAZ. I have been raped by playing with FAS, so I'm not joining him.

So I expect a market pullback, few days or a week or two, before the Obama rally party resumes.

I am still in long resource stocks in Gold, Oil, Food, etc, but lightened up a little and added the shorts above.

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