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Sunday, March 15, 2009

Buy, hold, or sell US Equities

On March 5th, I posted buying some lottery tickets , that since then have paid off reasonably well. In the last 5 days, the US Stock market has advanced about 12% on the SP500 now at 757. As previously posted, a reasonable target is around 800+ range, and a high target is back to the level we saw Jan 2nd at about 930. However, the long term target for the market is 400-500 range.
Whats the point? The market has recovered 12% in 4 days, looking for additional 5% to 15% higher, with long term target if up to -45% more down.

If you where caught long during this collapse, the potential risk-to-reward to stay long is kinda like a game of chicken now. I never advocate buying 100% or selling 100% on any given day in your own positions. But to scale in and scale out is prudent, to reduce risk. Consider moving a percent of your holdings into something more secure than common equities, while looking at the downside risk to upside reward.

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

*NOTE* High inflation changes everything, if it occurs S&P500 could hit 1,5000, but inflation would be high.

I am still holding the lottery tickets, hoping to put stop-losses in if/when they pass 50% up mark. Also, the target down does not apply in general to resources, however, if/when the equities make new lows, I wouldn't be surprised to see resources also be affected downward.

Bottom line, NOTHING is easy, and everywhere I still see risk. I am still in somewhat looking positive, but getting concerned that the up side may be getting stretched thin soon.
What is also amazing is that any significant news from the US government to actually address trust, transparency, and the true issues behind the market, could change the entire outlook of the up and downside for the better.
None of this is destiny, but without proper action, my long term view of S&P down 35-45% from here holds.
NOTE: Please read the disclaimer found here. I have zero professional credentials on equity trading, and further, you should assume I am as incompetent as your own stock broker. :)

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