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Sunday, January 11, 2009

Earnings Season Week

Unfortunately the market has decisively broke down on Friday. Looking at the chart to the right the market clearly has broken down outside of the trend I was watching. Most of my market plays are in resources, which is affected, but not as much as other sectors. I still have hope for a rally, but it better come by Tuesday or I need to wise up and take my losses & get out of my losing positions.

The big news this week will be corporate earnings. At the close today Alcoa (AA) reports. In my twitter I announced I put some option bets that AA runs higher.
On Monday, if the options rally, I'll sell 1/2 to cover my expenses and let the rest ride. If AA options fall, at close Monday I may add to my bet.

The "Market Ticker Guy" Karl has a pay video service that I watch. I do recommend paying for Karl's video service. In his service he calls for ending the optimism if the S&P falls below 870.
In addition to The Smart Money Tracker, also has a pay service that I recommend, he has warned for weeks that the market rally will not occur, and will trade down or "sideways" for a while. This week we'll know if Gary is right (again).

So Monday and Tuesday will be interesting for me, and I suspect I'll have to make some decisions on Tuesday. In any event for long term investing, slowly buying in the next 6 months basic resources when "cheap" such as oil, and if gold gets cheap, hasn't changed, and will not change even if the market collapses.

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