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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

US Dollar falling

The US dollar had a significant rise in last 4 months, about 24%, tide is turning against the USD, and has been weakening recently. This is partially to explain resource stocks strength in a weak market like Monday.

Also there are rumblings of more "reckless" spending with Obama campaign looking to have a 3 trillion dollar stimulus package, which may be giving currency traders pause for thought on USD valuation.

Assuming the USD weakens, this will help stocks rise, as well as resource costs. Check out Smart Money Blog for trend analysis of the DOW building pressure under the 50 DMA for a movement upwards.

GDX has moved higher, to close about $30.34, Oil was weak today, and retraced back.
One of the small-time gold miners broke up 95% today, that triggered Happy John to notify me about other small-time gold miners as a possible play. I had small miners, and added to them. Some of the ones I have (all under 10 buck stocks) are:
AAUK, ABX, ANO. AUY, FNARX , GG, GSS, HL, HMY, IAG, IVN, LMC, NAK, NXG, PAAS, SIL,
large miners - FCX, RGLD, NEM,
Also took some "high risk bets" on
FAS, DXO,
And what I consider low risk bets still on GDX.

Once again, there is much much bad news being released every day. Perhaps one of these day's I'll go back and make a 2 week best of. Will be one depressing post. But the news is falling on deaf ears for now.
The stock to watch will be Goldman Sachs in the morning, it could change the rally into a bear, but the expectations are low, so even meeting expectations will likely bring a decent rally.
UPDATE 2/12/9 - HL and LMC is a loser, so was FAS/DXO. Kept some of HL, only 1K. Kept some DXO (10k)
UPDATE - Dropped SIL

2 comments:

  1. The dollar is falling once again but this time oil is also falling, not rising? Quite simply, I don't get it.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I agree 100% with the oil not going up as confusing. However, Oil is less of a "currency" play, where gold is. Oil is more of a supply and demand play. Since Oil trades in "US Dollars" primarily, it doesn't immediately change in price with dollar drop.
    I'm hoping oil pops between now and friday.

    ReplyDelete