Who benefits from a depression?

 https://youtu.be/lDvYj6nlwI8?si=icMknV3YonaQjbw_

World is contracting because America selfish turn and AI future advantage

America is increasingly acting in its own interest, changing rules to favor itself while the rest of the world suffers. Russia and China bear the brunt of this impact, with China's troubles largely stemming from the free world withdrawing manufacturing operations and a decline in American consumer purchases.

Combined with the current US administration's efforts to cut government spending, we are on the brink of experiencing significant deflation—the likes of which haven't been seen since 1913—driven by an unprecedentedly strong dollar ahead. After reaching this peak, the dollar is expected to gradually lose value over time, as the world moves away from using it as a standard currency due to the hardships caused by overreliance.

In this environment, global wealth may be left grappling with how best to deploy capital for survival in the changing landscape. Meanwhile, as global challenges to traditional currencies mount, gold continues to reach new highs. In my view, the only assured area of value is the future of AI and robotics, as they represent a sector of guaranteed growth. Gold and Bitcoin, however, depend on a future influx of cash to drive asset values higher. Bitcoin, in particular, stands the best chance of retaining value, as autonomous AI-driven money-making systems built on Bitcoin could operate independently of global government constraints, preserving its status as a valuable asset for trade.

China debt is now hitting 1 trillion a month, see below

https://youtu.be/efRgjYcELko?si=PS2HeZTNOSlHMYsW

Going Short the Market

President Trump is aggressively challenging the status quo on multiple fronts. Whether it's bypassing the constitutional law that only Congress can appropriate funds, sidestepping security clearance protocols by granting access to figures like Musk without proper congressional approval, or making controversial claims about displacing entire ethnic groups in regions like Gaza, his actions are undeniably radical.

Having worked in IT for decades, I know that transformative change often brings immediate challenges—even when it promises long-term benefits. So, even if you support Trump's unconventional approach and favor consolidating power in the executive branch (much like authoritarian leaders such as Putin or Xi Jinping), expect that the road to prosperity will not be smooth.

I'm positioning myself accordingly by loading up on shorts, particularly in sectors I expect to suffer the most from increased tariffs and market instability. My focus is on industries like automobile manufacturing, small businesses, and banking, which I believe will be hit hardest without a safety net from Trump.

On the other hand, if a substantial downturn occurs in the AI market, I’ll be quick to go long on AI stocks. I’ve already invested in Palantir, as they are strategically positioned to serve the U.S. military's AI needs. I'm also bullish on Bitcoin, anticipating  Trump is planning to buy Bitcoin’s through policies involving taxpayer dollars. This will cause Bitcoin to surge, and his insiders (and his companies) will be cashing out—an early sign of crony capitalism in action. With that in mind, I plan to research Trump’s preferred allies and invest in their stocks as the trend unfolds.

Good luck!

 

How Democracy Dies

The current presidential use of executive orders to impose tariffs isn’t simply a matter of economic policy or even breaking trade agreements—it’s a stark reminder of the difference between democracies and dictatorships.

In a true democracy, trust is built on the bedrock of honoring agreements. Congress and government bodies craft laws through debate, compromise, and checks and balances. These agreements are not arbitrary; they are the lifeblood of a system that empowers citizens and distributes power so that no one individual or group can dominate. When a unilaterally overriding these agreements, it isn’t just adjusting policy—it’s eroding the mutual trust that makes democratic governance possible.

In contrast, dictatorships thrive on the concentration of power. In such regimes, a single ruler—or a small cabal—imposes decisions without consultation or accountability. In these systems, dissent is crushed and citizens are forced to echo the leader’s words, stifling open debate and independent thought.

What made America great was precisely its commitment to democratic ideals: the freedom to discuss, disagree, and shape laws collectively. To “make America great again” means refining our democratic process, not undermining it by bypassing Congress and centralizing power in one individual’s hands.

When executive orders replace laws made by our elected representatives, we aren’t just changing tariff rates—we’re setting a dangerous precedent that erodes democratic process and paves the way toward authoritarianism.  The strength of a nation lies in its ability to allow robust debate among its democratic representatives, respect established agreements, and share power. That is the essence of democracy

Is Bitcoin future store of value for the world?

The video below does a great job explaining the history of money and where Bitcoin might be headed. However, it misses a key point: Bitcoin isn’t money and probably never will be. Instead, it’s the premier digital store of value that’s gaining global traction. Honestly, no other pure digital asset matches Bitcoin’s universal appeal for storing value.

Why is digital storage so important? It allows for fully distributed financial systems. In finance, transactions often need collateral to proceed. Think of collateral as a safety net—if things go south, the loss is covered by transferring the equivalent in Bitcoin. This setup lets people take risks with limited downside.

Imagine a fully digital world: what digital asset would you trust as collateral? DOGE coin? 🤔

Looking ahead to 2025, I’m predicting a Bitcoin mega bubble. Why? Let’s just say Trump’s economic ideas aren’t exactly sparking growth. Raising import taxes, slashing government jobs, and removing affordable labor from the U.S. are more emotional moves than solid financial strategies, hurting small businesses in the process.

Remember 2020? Bitcoin was just hanging out at $5K. Trump unleashed a $2 trillion bond issuance—the biggest money giveaway ever. Then Biden kept the free money flowing, and boom—hello inflation. 

With potential of Trump free money and Trump pushing Bitcoin as a short-term “USA success story,” I’m optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects in 2025-2026.

Don’t get me wrong, I plan to sell a coin when Bitcoin’s hype peaks. Since it’s not a magic ticket but more of a digital collectible, I’m eyeing an exit around $400K.  Moving to $1M isn't out of the question. 

This time, I’m recommend FBTC over GBTC. Back in 2020, GBTC was the only option and it did great, jumping $10 to $55 back then and recently from $8 in 2023 to $80—a tenfold increase!
Do your homework on GBTC, though. Personally, I prefer FBTC since it’s directly tied to Bitcoin.

The ONLY question is can bitcoin hold value in a world with US Stock market falling.
Hence, please buy only what you can hold through a downturn of bitcoin.

Trump is good for bitcoin

 

Trump tends to reach for the easy button to make people happy or make money.   I am rethinking my stance if bitcoin at 145k as my target.   Instead, I am revising to 400k-500k as a 2025 target.   Specifically I am thinking bitcoin will hit upper bound of this chart.

https://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/2024/11/bitcoins-end-game.html

Bitcoin may become an asset banks will allow loans taken against it as collateral.  Whenever this does happen, that should indicate a top will be approaching.  I suspect bank loans will be on the next wave, but it’s difficult to see how bitcoin as an asset changes under Trump.

I cancelled my bitcoin sell order at 145k.  If bitcoin approaches the upper bound of the chart above, please consider selling if the money will make a positive impact to your life.

Can Trump fix world finance?

President-elect Trump during his first presidency,  oversaw over 50 major departures from his administration. We witnessed significant turnover for various reasons: some officials received "too much attention," diverting focus away from Trump, or simply sought to perform their duties with some degree of independence.

In the years ahead, America will face economic challenges unlike those seen since 1929, and we need strong leadership to navigate the storm. The misuse of the U.S. financial system, both domestically and globally, is severe. When we need the world's support most, we risk burning bridges with our allies, while our adversaries may rejoice at our downfall.

If Trump consolidates power by directing all actions or surrounding himself with blind loyalists, he will stifle the distribution of power within the U.S. government. The outcome—whether wildly successful or a failure—will hinge on Trump and the Americans who supported his promises to dismantle the system. If dismantling the democratic system is pursued, America in 2028 will look nothing like it does in 2024, as division and internal conflict escalate.

Let’s hope I am wrong, and that Trump will unite Americans, empower democratic institutions, reinvigorate the populace, inspire individuals to strive, and change the rules of the game to make the American dream more attainable.  If the dream dies, I can't see anyone caring about the stock market anymore, except the 0.1%.