Welcome new reader!

Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.

Monday, December 23, 2024

Is Bitcoin future store of value for the world?

The video below does a great job explaining the history of money and where Bitcoin might be headed. However, it misses a key point: Bitcoin isn’t money and probably never will be. Instead, it’s the premier digital store of value that’s gaining global traction. Honestly, no other pure digital asset matches Bitcoin’s universal appeal for storing value.

Why is digital storage so important? It allows for fully distributed financial systems. In finance, transactions often need collateral to proceed. Think of collateral as a safety net—if things go south, the loss is covered by transferring the equivalent in Bitcoin. This setup lets people take risks with limited downside.

Imagine a fully digital world: what digital asset would you trust as collateral? DOGE coin? 🤔

Looking ahead to 2025, I’m predicting a Bitcoin mega bubble. Why? Let’s just say Trump’s economic ideas aren’t exactly sparking growth. Raising import taxes, slashing government jobs, and removing affordable labor from the U.S. are more emotional moves than solid financial strategies, hurting small businesses in the process.

Remember 2020? Bitcoin was just hanging out at $5K. Trump unleashed a $2 trillion bond issuance—the biggest money giveaway ever. Then Biden kept the free money flowing, and boom—hello inflation. 

With potential of Trump free money and Trump pushing Bitcoin as a short-term “USA success story,” I’m optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects in 2025-2026.

Don’t get me wrong, I plan to sell a coin when Bitcoin’s hype peaks. Since it’s not a magic ticket but more of a digital collectible, I’m eyeing an exit around $400K.  Moving to $1M isn't out of the question. 

This time, I’m recommend FBTC over GBTC. Back in 2020, GBTC was the only option and it did great, jumping $10 to $55 back then and recently from $8 in 2023 to $80—a tenfold increase!
Do your homework on GBTC, though. Personally, I prefer FBTC since it’s directly tied to Bitcoin.

The ONLY question is can bitcoin hold value in a world with US Stock market falling.
Hence, please buy only what you can hold through a downturn of bitcoin.

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Trump is good for bitcoin

 



Trump tends to reach for the easy button to make people happy or make money.   I am rethinking my stance if bitcoin at 145k as my target.   Instead, I am revising to 400k-500k as a 2025 target.   Specifically I am thinking bitcoin will hit upper bound of this chart.

https://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/2024/11/bitcoins-end-game.html

Bitcoin may become an asset banks will allow loans taken against it as collateral.  Whenever this does happen, that should indicate a top will be approaching.  I suspect bank loans will be on the next wave, but it’s difficult to see how bitcoin as an asset changes under Trump.

I cancelled my bitcoin sell order at 145k.  If bitcoin approaches the upper bound of the chart above, please consider selling if the money will make a positive impact to your life.



Monday, November 25, 2024

Can Trump fix world finance?

President-elect Trump during his first presidency,  oversaw over 50 major departures from his administration. We witnessed significant turnover for various reasons: some officials received "too much attention," diverting focus away from Trump, or simply sought to perform their duties with some degree of independence.

In the years ahead, America will face economic challenges unlike those seen since 1929, and we need strong leadership to navigate the storm. The misuse of the U.S. financial system, both domestically and globally, is severe. When we need the world's support most, we risk burning bridges with our allies, while our adversaries may rejoice at our downfall.

If Trump consolidates power by directing all actions or surrounding himself with blind loyalists, he will stifle the distribution of power within the U.S. government. The outcome—whether wildly successful or a failure—will hinge on Trump and the Americans who supported his promises to dismantle the system. If dismantling the democratic system is pursued, America in 2028 will look nothing like it does in 2024, as division and internal conflict escalate.

Let’s hope I am wrong, and that Trump will unite Americans, empower democratic institutions, reinvigorate the populace, inspire individuals to strive, and change the rules of the game to make the American dream more attainable.  If the dream dies, I can't see anyone caring about the stock market anymore, except the 0.1%.


Saturday, November 23, 2024

Future employment with AI

 


AI's Revolutionary Progress and Its Implications for the Future of Companies

AI is advancing at an extraordinary pace, and most people remain unaware of its true capabilities. I operate under the assumption that no matter how much I read and learn about AI daily, I am still behind the curve of what’s possible. What I’m about to discuss has already been achieved in various forms (wherever possible, I’ve included links), and the extrapolation is simply that these developments will become even better and truly viable in the near future. None of this requires true AGI, we simply need to make AI "a tiny bit better" than an average person.


The Virtual Company Revolution

Future companies will be founded by individuals or small groups who instantiate a virtual company. These companies will consist of fully virtualized employees, each with unique specialties and dispositions designed to maximize the chance of success. Every virtual employee will have individual memories and histories, allowing for iteration, continuous improvement, and the avoidance of repeated mistakes.

Human owners of these virtual companies will need access to seed capital. Knowledge work companies will find it cost prohibitive to staff highly skilled human employees as compared to the alternative, as a function of potential progress in a given year. Once operational, these virtual companies can function autonomously, with human founders acting as a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) or a board of directors, conducting periodic reviews and offering strategic advice.


Autonomous Operations and Financial Independence

Virtual companies will independently manage assets, including cash, to fund their AI capabilities, run experiments, and evolve their missions. For this to work seamlessly, companies will rely on decentralized financial systems. Bitcoin is a prime example of a capital system outside government control, making it an ideal candidate for these operations.

To succeed, the majority (95%+) of a company’s operations will be virtualized, including:

  • AI provisioning: Dynamically allocating computational resources.
  • Knowledge specialization: Hiring AI agents in specific domains of expertise.
  • Execution: Meeting objectives through automated workflows and smart systems.
  • Subcontracting: Automating or virtualizing third-party work.

For instance, a virtual company requiring research could hire a virtual researcher to design experiments and produce whitepapers. To maintain competitiveness, such processes must be automated as much as possible, ensuring objectives are met faster than the competition.


Competitive Advantage and Wealth Creation

The last century has demonstrated that wealth accumulates where new capabilities are created. The wealthiest individuals or organizations often dominate markets by being the first to develop or commercialize transformative technologies. In this paradigm, the new top 0.1% will be those who can fund and deploy virtual resources effectively to create value in the marketplace.


Implications for the Majority

For most of us, thriving in this new era will hinge on interpersonal skills, as most knowledge work becomes outsourced or automated.  The ability to foster positive relationships and collaboration will become paramount. Skills like Mindfulness and Emotional Intelligence will be invaluable. Developing and certifying these competencies could be a key strategy for staying relevant in a world increasingly dominated by virtualized expertise.

AI will create exponential advancements to human kind, but with it comes responsibility to adapt.

NOTE: I had AI take my thoughts and create this article.  Special thanks to Bob who commented I can't write a post well :)

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Bitcoin to 145k or beyond?

I wrote on November 4th bitcoin to 145k in 2025, bitcoin was at 67k.  It is poised to break 100k in the days ahead.

Looking closer at the chart I called out Nov 4th, it looks like bitcoin is breaking out.

If this thing goes parabolic, I will likely not hold into 2025, 145k is still my target.





Monday, November 4, 2024

Democracy may end

 I am an independent voter, I support the US Constitution.  Democracy is based on power comes from the people, not a single individual.  With that said if we choose to end democracy, I will not stand in the way of the will of the people.

Dramatic? Ill check back in 2028.

If Trump wins, America will be torn to shreds  by 2028.

Buckle up.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=BP6_cI5UUZg&si=AVTVuVxG9VahED0v


Sunday, November 3, 2024

Bitcoins end game


Using the history of Bitcoin as a guide, it will continue to go higher up towards $1 Million a coin.  

There are events that can change this trajectory, such as a "new better bitcoin".  One potential is the FED releasing USD blockchain.

How can you tell if the trend is dead?

There is a bitcoin "power law theory" that illustrates the price of bitcoin over the last 15 years:
https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/the-bitcoin-power-law-theory-962dfaf99ee9

According to this graph between mid 2025 and end of 2025 we should see a near term peak of bitcoin of ~$150K, with a pullback to ~$95K.

If you see bitcoin break below the red line, I expect bitcoin to enter a freefall, simply because big money will be watching the bitcoin trend over the last 15 years and recognize something has changed.

https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/

Based on this, it is reasonable to consider selling a coin in the blow off into 2025, maybe ~$145k.
Good luck!