I am looking at multiple analysts, the bullish ones, the bearish ones, everyone is pointing to a low in December. When everyone agrees I get nervous. However, these are not mainstream analysts so it is still a reasonable expectation.
Therefore we should see a bottom Dec 8th-25th, with a sustained bounce. we may not break the old highs but if not we should get close. The target is 5%-10% lower from here.
All USA and commodity assets are in the same disposition. Good luck!
A good video helping understand how Bitcoin selloff maybe a macro indicator for the overall asset markets.
By allowing the market to end lower before a weekend, the market can "gap up" on a Monday maximizing the market makers positioning for the upside.
So if this Friday its a blood bath, expect Monday before the open or after the open (circa the Trump bump in April) to start a rocket higher. I do fully expect this rocket to last 1 to 5 days, then we can find a meaningful bottom.
Good luck!
IMO there is likely wild turmoil in the markets as we have a confluence of financial events culminating in the next ~4 months. When President Trump hears the "market is collapsing" or "going down", with full certainty a tweet to "put a band aide" on the market sentiment. The insiders will force the market to gap up, very hard core, forcing all the people short (like me) to sell their positions. That will give the top 1% ability to sell their shares (to the short covering people) and a final flush to resume.
I am NOT mega short, I will take it on the chin hard core when above comes to pass, but I am leaving cash open. When this event happens, there is no need for a post, or talk to me, I am going in. Maybe not 100% on the day of the announcement (whatever it is), but I will be looking to load the boat.
This economic situation has been building since before 2008, and we have done nothing since then to fix the core financial rot. We could have kicked this can for another 4 years if the people elected another politician. They did not. We are pulling forward the financial reckoning.
Post washout, as the government "issues free money", Bitcoin/Gold should soar. That will of course start government taxes or limits on such investments, and the price controls will begin.
I do expect the next USA downturn to be short, as the "new thing", AI, is from USA.
Through all of this I expect the USD to do well. If China or Russia fail as countries, we could see a crazy rocket of US stocks.
I purchased 1 bitcoin back in 2020 , sold it today. Why now?
Bitcoin was the one optimistic asset in my portfolio that I had the strength to hang in there.
But I do expect a market correction (been since August?) and bitcoin is now held by institutional investors. I believe these entities are more likely to sell than the traditional buy and holders like myself. Bitcoin holders since the coin's inception have been selling. I suspect they believe the same thing I do.
In an asset crunch, people sell assets to cover their margin calls. Bitcoin I think will be impacted materially. This is the one place Gold does have an advantage, it takes more than a click to sell your gold "collection".
I am still in the game! Sure $125K would have been better, but like I said, having a bearish tilt on the USD global financial order, Bitcoin was (is) my long term hope.
I do still believe Bitcoin will hit $1M, even $10M a coin, who knows on what timeline. I do think once the USA over-reacts to this bear run in US markets, Bitcoin is the first place to invest.
The market has done a ridiculous good job of pushing higher. The market has not been a rocker above SPY 666.
We could run up into extreme highs into next year, but I think that is the narrative the majority is banking on.
I do think a 2008 crash is now impossible, as the Fed chairman will be replaced in January, and the person will be a Trumper. Trump has always run loose fiscally, as his multiple bankruptcies and defaulting on contractors.
So whenever the bottom is, I suspect in December or January. The bitcoin and gold sectors will be safest plays for liquidity inflows. As we print, there will be fear to invest in companies. There are also less startups as tech centralizes power. Therefore the currency will flow into ‘ponzi’ type assets.
Good luck!
