Potential Market Failure

 Back on Oct 14th I posted it was  reversal day, with a rally into March.   It’s March!

To be clear, I think its LESS likely of a fail from here, more likely a recovery.

Bank index did absolutely terrible Thursday, and if this doesn't recover ASAP, the market failure is imminent.  Target is 50% lower at a minimum until we find a bottom.

We could continue higher, if we do I believe the market will eventually fail with the largest single day drop in history.   But the market could break down soon with a more orderly wiggle trend downish.

Fridays job report could trigger the biggest day down (Monday?) I don’t think the report alone can do it.  If Russia or China state something really nasty turbo charging the jobs number reaction , if the market can move far enough to start a market maker squeeze.   

Robin Hood 20 year old's have taken their gambling addiction to zero day options.   The risk volume is in the trillions.  Yes trillions, while the S&P 500 30 day options is very low.

That leverage in a single day could create the market maker panic if the risk becomes too great to cover 'the bets'.   I think we have more time (~1-3 months), but if we get a market move up continuing in the month ahead, the setup will be in place.  Ironically in Oct 14th post I said that *I* would be convinced the market will go higher in March, and here I am writing it. Listen to me on Oct 14th or today, your choice.

What everyone is waiting for is a break through the trend lines.  (click on image) If we CLOSE on a FRIDAY below these lines, its not going to be pretty, expect immediate market decline of 10%. 

If we break below , first stop is the 200 day moving average, about S&P 500 3740-ish, then next stop is 3500, then 3267.  Past that, final stop is ~2600-2700 range.  The market high was S&P 500 4082, now at ~3945.

That would be a very big drop.  If we hit a critical mass low (2700?) , I will be buying INDA, EWW, and EWZ for a decade hold. I purchased Royal gold at the USD top, and will retain that as a hedge, along with some crypto holding.

Good luck!