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Thursday, December 4, 2014

Gold, USD, and 2015

If we ignore relaity, and look at the measuring sticks of USA proclivity, USD valuation, and  thins such as inflation, I think 2015 looks insanely awesome!
This statement comes with caveat of those who are employable and those who are not.
As I explain in March of the Robots Deflation for Decades, we will experience in the west downward pressure on the masses for income.

But right now, the question focuses on three things.  Interest rates (govern everything for future growth), USD valuation compared to world currency basket, and GDP to debt ratio.

The GDP to debt ratio is actually immaterial, for it rests on the stronger vs weaker to maintain sustainability.   So it less about mechanics and more about people positioning.

So lets take a look at on Interest rates and USD valuation:
We are not even close to 2002 valuations, so USD as room to run upward.
If it does all commodities are downward, including gold.

The real story is borrowing on future income, interest rates.
Looking at USD 30 year bolds, the gold standard for long-term debt, we can analyze the 10 year return:
then we come to gold, the outdated form of deflationary protection:
We have been on a tear since 1970, about when Nixon decoupled:



This DOES NOT mean gold = money.  Gold is the WORST money ever.  What this shows as an investment since 1970 god is about 3-4 times more valuable.  Depending on stock market plays, this is either great or terrible.

The low-down is we continue to be in a middle ground, looking for direction.
when that happens I expect gold to rocket 15% higher in one day.
Good luck.


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