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Monday, May 25, 2009

Bull vs Bear

I have a feeling there will be some fireworks as this market turns down. On the S&P500 chart I have been watching, Friday passed the intersection of S&P 500's 200 DMA line, 2009 high, and recent bull trend line up. Now I am looking for SPX to close below 875 with conviction to mark the start of the bear market down. There are very huge financial forces at work to hold the line, but as previously blogged, I think the next leg will be down.

I have a hard time believing we can come out of this week without a hard decision of direction. The market marked by the blue line has been keeping in a range, at about SPX 875 to 925.

This is not fun to watch, but not watching doesn't make it the unlikely event.
From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

As for GDX, (Gold Miners ETF) it is poised for an all out run up to new highs, lets take a look:

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog
As previously blogged, I hold majority in smaller gold miners, only a small position in GDX. I wouldn't recommend chasing GDX here, but wait for a pullback to the bull trend line.
So this week will be interesting indeed. The short positions are holding up well, as are the lottery tickets.

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