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Monday, August 18, 2008

Stock market trend prediction

This blog entry is a reprint from an email I sent out before I created this blog, 11 days ago.
The comments I sent then is now in play.

date Thu, Aug 7, 2008 at 8:13 AM
subject Market "top" ?

I am NOT a financial consultant, and you should consult your personal financial adviser.
And any advice below is worth as much as you have paid for it.

We are looking close to a market top, between our current level 11,650 to DOW 12,000.
Once the upswing loses steam, we will continue down eventually DOW 10,000 (not in a straight line, up/down next 6-9 months)
It "could" go straight down if we hit great depression type collapse, which I don't expect but its possible.

I wouldn't get greedy, consider at any time getting money out of long stock play and into more secure investments starting now.
Remember, FIXED income is NOT secure, unless its Federal treasury notes.
Natural resources, Gold, Silver, etc is also not good at their levels yet.

If you want to play "press your luck" August 18th is a key "turn date" by some blog sphere people and August 16th is "options date", which historically has moved the market hard up or down.

To recap we are 0-4% near the local top on our way down with a 15% or more to go
Part of the reason I am sharing this worthless opinion, is to keep a record of my thoughts as this evolves.

My Spin as of 8/18/08:
Quite possibly one more hard rally up for a few days before we hit top resistance and move downward. We are talking days or a week(s?) before the market to get it's next leg down gains steam.

Looking at DJIA, the volume is falling even though the market is down recently, indicating that the downturn is not "confirmed". The Stockastic on a weekly chart view shows approaching overbought.

1 comment:

  1. I don't think I would read too much into volume. Volume always drops off the last two weeks of Aug.