The market cleared all bear hurdles so there was no real bears left, hence my post yesterday. It worked, I had lightened up my shorts and went long.
Today SPY broke below the warning level of 663 with conviction. I lightened up on my longs materially, and I took on some decent short positions into the weekend.
Any close of 664 or higher and I'll become bullish again. Good Luck!
If you are long, take some off the table, but one day isn't a full market decision.
The only reservation I have is the American consumer and middle class are being marginalized. But in the new world ahead, I don't think American middle class matters to the financial markets.
What will matter is using AI to reduce labor, increase productivity, and advance capabilities in a winner take all run. The number of relevant public companies in this sector is small, with a material amount of private equity funding the core beneficiaries.
With less stock to purchase that is relevant, with massive money waiting fora downturn that never came, I can see upwards of a 25% market gain from here to EOY, as insane as that sounds to you, its even crazier for me.
So while I can't advise go all in on this sentiment, I can say, you have to be in it to win it.
My last post listed some of the companies I am in, I will be closing out my shorts (most against specific companies) and look for long opportunities. I didn't bet big on IREN and CIFR for the AI/Bitcoin datacenter play (I sold early), I am eyeing up HIVE as it hasn't made a run yet.
Stocks I like still is HIVE, FBTC (Bitcoin), SMR, TSM, URA, OKLO, SLDP.
Best I can say is good luck! Unless SPY closed below 663, there is absolutely no reason to be bearish.
Today is "Turn around Tuesday" closing higher than Monday any day this week, and I agree with below.
The S&P 500 (SPY) has closed above 666 for multiple days, solidifying its advancement.
The red line is the SPY relative to dollar value, and the green/red bar line is the SPY. Last week the market made a new high in US Dollar value terms. That means up until last week, the most global purchasing power your life saving was lower since January of 2025 even though the SPY was much lower.
In any event, everything points upwards. We may in-fact see a market parabolic up into 2026. The consumer and employment numbers are not good, inflation is being sticky, electric energy prices are poised to remain high and continue higher. But none of the USA negative attributes matter. At the end of the year is when the US spends beyond its means (borrows) into the economy, and the market is showing signs of bullish.
I expect crypto to explode upwards, energy stocks, and the current fad sectors. The only thing I see negative is even I have materially reduced shorts (not zero). The market tends to top when even the bears buy in. Big money, such as investment funds, have been selling and reduced their market exposure. It is possible they give in, and start buying to not miss out into the end of year.
This all changes nothing about the end game, this ends in tears, the us economy is in shambles, people are bankrupt, unemployed, priced out of housing, the staple costs exploding up, healthcare about to double. In effect the US as the worlds consumer is about to end, and that was a key attribute the world had become dependent on.
Key holdings: FBTC, RGLD, HMY, BKKT, CIFR, FETH, FBTC, SMR, TSM, URA, INTC, OKLO, SLDP. buying HIVE
Key international: INDA, SHLD, EZA, EWW, EFAV, EWL (Switzerland, not a growth play),
Key shorts (limited size): LOW (option bear call spreads), STLA (puts from Sept 2024), CNI, SLG, FNGD.
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