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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.

Monday, January 1, 2018

2018 New Year - Looking Behind and Ahead

I wanted to take a moment to post some thoughts.
Looking across the economic board, we are in for another banner year in 2018, there is nothing holding the market back, the sky is the limit!
Honestly, I can't post any reason why we dont just double from here.  And thats the issue, when a 'critic' can't show you why we can't retreat chances are, something is a foot.

There is one issue, and I posted this back in 2010, and that is interest rates.

Yes! boring old interest rates, who cares when we have so many places to invest!
The issue is the world monetary system is built upon a debt-system, and when rates go up, we can have issues.

Further, with the new tax cuts and technology advances, I expect more gaps in the poor vs wealthy in America.  the middle class has been beaten, kicked, and next routed.  Maybe with our current president the populous will accept the new reality over the next 3 years.  It could be as simple as having the 'right communicator' in charge to push the haves into the next level of wealth.

So lets take a look, first at my concerns, then the rest.  Really, its hard to see anything of real concern at all.

First up is long term stock indicator I have posted, the overall stock market is set to GREEN!
If the lines cross, time to be cautious.

How about interest rates?  when the lines cross, time to get concerned.





Next up is US Debt.  While Debt isn't NEARLY as bad as media an politicians make it to be, it can become an issue if the work perception turns on USA.  Notice the Bush crash ballooned the debt to 75% before Obama and Obama took 2 more years before the debt jumping slowed.

Clinton debt went down, all others up!

Since Debt really isnt a forefront issue, lets move to one that is, Energy.
If USA charges ahead to reduce dependence on Oil, this won't be as big a deal, but current administration may be hellbent on keeping America dependant on Oil.
And currently, even if the administration wants to get off Oil, we are far from it, so Oil price must be under control.

Bitcoin is all the rage, and I am playing with MGTI (bitcoin stock) and Marijuana stocks.
How is my old axe I grind since 2009, gold miners?  Really hate these things, but there seems to be some life ahead.

Then there is a few of the other sectors to look at.






So there ya have it.  Sky is the limit, all is great until it isn't.  I like Marijuana stocks and bitcoin stocks/  Keeping an eye on interest rates, food costs, Oil costs, USD value, and China's health.  If china breaks out of the trend line upwards, we should have a nice ride.