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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.
Please click HERE to read a synopsis of my view of the financial situation.

Monday, April 30, 2012

Deck

Those who follow me for a while will remember I shorted Deck a few times, well the stock finally deflated form high of 120 six months ago to down to 55.

Its all in the timing.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Time to buy GDX?

Click here to look at current chart of GDX.

GDX has been trading in a range for a few weeks, I suspect it is consolidation.
Right now GDX is about 46, and GDXJ at 22.
I like buying a little more between 46-45 and GDXJ at 22-21.

For greater analysis than just a chart, check out Gary of Smart Money tracker.

The only question is can miners buck the trend if the stock leaders burst.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Time to buy more metal miners?

If you look at the chart below, buying GDX or GDXJ right now is like trying to catch a falling knife.  And if you look back at my blog, when I try to catch falling knives, I don't have a great track record.

But here I am again, trying to catch falling knives.  GDX and GDXJ, among other resources have taken a beating in the last 6 months or so.  And in the last run up of the market, precious metal miners did not fare well at all.

There are plenty of reasons to NOT buy metal miners right now.  There are economic issues in Europe and China, as well as lower issues in the USA.   Outlook looks dicey at best, with many economic indicators swooning.  In a down market, everything takes a hit, it is almost unheard of for one sector to boom while all others bust.
Oil prices are staying stubbornly high, and I can't see them taking a huge hit.  Energy supplies are tight, and USA consumption of gas is at a 5+ year low.  The world needs more cheap energy, it isn't the USA's market anymore.

All of above really makes it hard to say buy miners.   So I don't advocate any major purchases, just  tiny amount, a buy over time to average costs.  Right here and now looks like a decent spot.

Gary of the Smart money tracker is much more nimble, he is in and out at first sign of trouble.  If you want to be nimble, please read his advice.

I am trying to look for buying opportunities for metals and energy over time.  Miners have taken a beating, maybe much more of a beating ahead.  But eventually, the global political pressures and eventually the next economic upswing, both will apply pressure to resources and bring these sectors back with a vengeance.

To me its a guarantee that resources will be up in 2+ years, in a big way. The only question is, how long to sit and wait to get better pricing for the ride ahead.  Is now the time? If you can tell when the right time to catch falling knives, put a comment below.  For me, buy low, sell high, and there is no dispute, prices are on the lower side historically for these ETFs.



Friday, April 13, 2012

George Carlin Pretty Much Sums it Up

The one aspect that is completely missed, is internet and social networking will  bring power back to the people.   As I posted here and here.  Otherwise, George Carlin video pretty much sums it up.....if you are looking for a scapegoat.
I  think George is flat wrong, there is no grand conspiracy.  People of every area of society get away with as much as they can.  It is up to the other members of society to push back appropriately and hold the line, to defend their interests.  Those who don't, allow the other areas to over-extend their influence.

So while the video below is a entertaining watch, it is a twist of reality.  The reason why the system is allowed to be perverted, is right in the mirror.  But it is easier to play the victim card than to do something about it.

For more about current corruption, watch this video series.



Thursday, April 12, 2012

Market Breakdown Near?

Everything I read states market breakdown maybe around the corner, or at very least slow bleed in the months to come.  Either way, fixed income is the only place to be, as all assets may decline.

The wild card of course is the world's hero, Ben Bernanke, he can give the market another pop, but each time the half-life of the effect hits.  So even if he does, it just kicks the can for months, not years at this point.

On target for 2012 to be a down year, after a really strong start.
Good luck

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Bernanke says stemming bank runs may be difficult, does anyone care?

When I read Ben Bernanke statement today, I was floored by this statement:

He reiterated a worry that he and other top policymakers have expressed about the continued vulnerability of money market funds.
"The risk of runs ... remains a concern, particularly since some of the tools that policymakers employed to stem the runs during the crisis are no longer available," he said.


Wow, did I just hear a nuclear bomb go off?   Risk of bank runs is still a concern?   But Ben Bernanke is the worlds hero, he saved the world from financial Armageddon.
A hero is someone who changes the world for the better, doesn't do delay tactics and the world still faces the same issues 4 years later!
But the world yawns, and all is good.   What I am unsure of is what does this signal from Bernanke?  Does this mean in the next financial market downturn, his hands are tied?

The argument among bloggers is about The fed's loose monetary policy, can it be kept up forever without consequence?   The thought is the rise of natural resource prices are to blame for loose money games.  And that Ben cannot keep up the same level of monetary loose policies for fear of sparking more civil unrest.
We are seeing in Europe pressure of a classic Deflationary collapse, and in America and China, inflationary forces at work.  The cause is debatable.

What is reality is immaterial.  What matters is what the Federal Reserve believes is reality, and how the behavior may change in the year to come.  If Ben believes that his monetary policies cannot be pursued to the same extent as in 2008, then we will have a change in financial markets, its only a matter of time.

Monday, April 9, 2012

New Civic Activism

Next time someone says the government is broken, or politicians don't do the right thing, agree with them!

Then ask, how are they trying to improve it? And voting does not count.

GREAT video about the re-invention of civic activism.  Bringing what the WW 2 vets did into the new century.
Time to roll up sleeves and get active.