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Friday, November 9, 2012

Market Musings, Part 2

So the SPX is broken below 1395.   I am very bearish on the overall market. (reconsider SPX 1316)  Gary of Smart Money Tracker expects gold and gold miners to buck the rest of the market.  Having some of this sector to build on is always a good idea in my book.

We are ENTERING another recessions, globally.  Such a recession I doubt will resolve quickly.  A good turn around would be spring or summer of next year.  Turn around right now seems hard to imagine.

The republicans lost the presidential race, and the fiscal cliff in January 2013 approaches.
If the republicans can maneuver to force the fiscal cliff to occur, thereby injuring US economy significantly, they will have setup Obama to have another hard four years to try to stabilize the economy.

The more the Republicans can injure the US economy, the more they can make Obama look like the problem, with the solution being a Republican president in 2016 elected.

I am no fan of Obama. If the republicans played nice and worked with Obama, I do not believe his medicine will fix it.   The most likely outcome is if both sides fight, and fail to unite to compromise, we all lose.  That is the likely path I see.  Republicans do not believe in compromise, and Democrats seemingly cannot grasp fiscal and government discipline.  This is not a political blog, but politics do affect your investments, so it must be kept in the spotlight.

With a backdrop of Christmas upon us, election over, North East impaired and deficit spending to restore normalcy, Europe in perpetual crisis, and the fiscal cliff ahead, I see no reason to run to stocks.

If you have a burning desire to buy stocks and not fixed income, as always for the loooong haul I like Oil, gold, food, and alternate energy.   Some of these sectors have been BRUTALIZED in the last year.   Stocks  that have been gaining in this market decline recently are:
NAK - 4.19 , HTM - 0.33 , AUQ - 8.46 , AUY - 20.36, UNG - 21.19
EFT's for miners holding their own
GDX - 51.41, GDXJ - 23.92,
And metals
GLD 168, & SLV 31.38
Alternate Energy and Oil are getting punished with the dowturn.
TAN -14.55 (solar) is at a low, and OIH 37.19 (oil companies) is getting punished.
DBA - 28.78 (food) also getting mildly punished

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