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Thursday, August 23, 2012

Housing Bottom in sight?

Between baby boomers selling their houses (during retirement or death), the 20 year olds having 100K student loans and poor job options, I can't see a housing rally in the next 20 years.

But the doom and gloom death spiral started with subprime loans may have an end in sight.
Back in December 2008, I posted a graph pontificating the worst of the housing may end by 2012, in post titled "Mortgage Defaults just starting".

The graph showed all the mortgage resets occurring over the next 4 years (at that time).
Fast forward to today, and the various bubble loans should be passing.

Banks still have millions of homes in shadow inventory, with millions more of homes in default.  So I wouldn't call a house rebound anytime soon.   However, the massive housing mortgage reset backlog may be slowing down.

The New York Times posted article "Signs of Revival, Slight but Sure, for Home Sales".

A number of factors have helped nudge prices higher, including shrinking inventory — particularly on the more affordable end of the market. There is about a six-month supply of homes, according to the Realtors’ group, down from more than nine months last summer.

So there ya have it.  What NYT did not post is the graph I posted back in 2008 showing that the housing would hit bottom around 2012 for mortgage resets.  NYT doesn't provide the depth in analysis to explain why housing is bottoming, just the surface of the here and now.  I'll take any good news.

With housing bleeding slowing down, it will be interesting if the US economy can get a toe hold of recovery.

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