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Sunday, July 15, 2012

Waiting for Central Banks Reactions

There is pressure on all sides right now in the global economy. Europe is teetering on an economic deflationary event not seen since the Great Depression. In 2008, it was a deflationary event, but quite short lived compared to most. The US changing laws to stop valuating companies using Accounting standards since the great depression helped, as well as 1.5 trillion annual deficit spending.
Food prices, gas prices, and some other resources are not even close to their 2008 lows. US unemployment/under employment is at 8.5% to as high as 25% depending on what statistics you believe. US Federal bonds at near record interest rate lows. China experiencing a credit collapse, with Australia at minimum experiencing an economic cool down. There are many other signs such as manufacturing slowing, etc.
 Since 2008 NOTHING has been fixed. As a global society we pissed away 4 years, trillions in debt spending, as well as encouraged companies to be reckless and remain insolvent. So its back to the central banks, what is the response going to be? Watch another 2008 unfold? Or pre-emptive strike? If history is any tale, pre-emptive strike is a shoe in.
 But there is a fly in the ointment. Natural resource prices have not yet collapsed like they did in 2008. If the Central Banks come out guns a blazing with more free cash, it will cause resources to move UP from here. I won't call for skyrocket by any means. But a higher low between economic issues does not bode well for the next few years.
 So I remain mildy bullish resources, with a toe in the waters, waiting to hear the other shoe drop, a "new deal" of printing to further flame the global currency war.

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