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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Time for Markets to end the Rally?

Back on October 5th, I posted "Time for markets to Rally".
Back then, I said I doubt this lasts more than 2 weeks.

Here we are, October 12th, and two weeks from the 5th will be the 19th.
We are in the home stretch for the rally to potentially end.

The next leg down should be not very nice if your long the markets.
Today I am going to consider adding to my exit of stocks.  Each day is really playing chicken with the market.  There is now law that the rally can't run for 2 months more.  But with the observations of China, Europe, USA, and other issues bubbling to the top, I have my doubts.

On October 5th, pre-open, the S&P 500 was at 1,120.  Today pre-open markets at 1,195.
On October 4th, markets stretched down to 1075.  So from 1075 to 1,200 (I expect a up cross today) is +125, or +11.6%.
In a world where US government bonds for a YEAR make under 1%, an up gain in +8 days of 11.6% is impressive.  Don't be greedy, for the next down swing should go below 1075, more than 12% lower from here.  See the bear at the top of this blog, he is still in control until proven otherwise.

Good luck

End of day: S&P 500 hit 1220 on 10-12-2011.  That is a 13.5% in eight days.  The gains count only if you keep them.

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